TSP Market Summary: Week of November 19, 2016

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • Dow and S&P 500 approaching new all-time highs with small caps up 11 straight days
  • Recommend increasing S and C fund allocation while reducing bond and international exposure
  • NASDAQ took 16 years to recover from 2000 peak, highlighting buy-and-hold risks

“Breakout to the Upside” is a nice bullish term for the markets, and it’s associated with new historic highs for market indices. As it stands right now, both the Dow and the S&P 500 are on the cusp of setting new historic highs. This bullishness in U.S. equities is also broad as the Russell 2000 Small Cap index has had 11 straight days of positive returns. On the other side of the coin, we’re seeing continued weakness in the bond and international funds. As such, we’re recommending a slight equity fund rebalancing with increased emphasis on the “S” and “C” funds.<br>As a side note, I do want to emphasis another example of what I call the “Buy and Hold Calamity”. I talked about historic highs above, but the NASDAQ Composite Index also made a new intraday historic high on Friday. The only thing unsettling about this is that the previous high was 16 years ago, in November 2000. That’s a long time to wait to get back to break even.

Recommended Allocation (Moderate Profile)

This is our historical recommendation from this date. For current recommendations, subscribe.

G FundF FundC FundS FundI Fund
20% 0% 35% 45% 0%