TSP Market Summary: 2018
53 weekly market commentaries from 2018.
December 2018
Week of December 22, 2018
Stocks had worst week since 2008 amid rate hikes and government shutdown. High volatility prompts defensive TSP positioning with no equity exposure.
- • Dow posted worst weekly performance since 2008 financial crisis amid multiple headwinds
Week of December 15, 2018
Markets declined on multiple fears including rate hikes and global growth. S&P 500 hit Death Cross signal. Fed meeting ahead with likely rate hike.
- • S&P 500 triggered bearish 'Death Cross' signal, ending 26.1% bull run since April 2015
Week of December 08, 2018
S&P 500 dropped 6% despite initial China trade optimism. TSP funds hit October lows amid trade tensions and yield curve inversion concerns.
- • China trade hopes quickly faded after executive arrest, driving major market selloff
Week of December 01, 2018
S&P 500 rebounded to 2760 after Fed Chair Powell hinted at neutral rates. G20 trade talks this weekend could impact Monday's market direction.
- • Fed Chair Powell's neutral rate comments sparked a bullish market surge benefiting C and S funds
November 2018
Week of November 24, 2018
Markets plunged this week with Dow down nearly 1000 points. S&P 500 entered correction territory. Recommendation shifts to 100% G fund allocation.
- • S&P 500 broke key support levels and entered correction territory, down 10% from highs
Week of November 17, 2018
Markets fell over 1% this week with tech stocks leading declines. TSP funds show negative performance, prompting defensive G fund positioning.
- • Tech sector drove market decline with Apple, Netflix, Amazon down 5-7% for the week
Week of November 10, 2018
Markets rallied into midterms but Fed rate hike signals and China trade concerns pulled stocks back. TSP maintains cautious stance amid bearish signals.
- • Fed kept rates unchanged but signaled future hikes, raising economic slowdown concerns
Week of November 03, 2018
S&P 500 gained despite volatility. Strong jobs report may prompt Fed rate hike. China trade talks created 500-point Dow swing on Friday.
- • Strong October jobs growth (250k) and 3.1% wage increases signal potential Fed rate hike
October 2018
Week of October 27, 2018
Markets saw extreme volatility with 8 major swings in 13 days. Strong GDP offset by weak earnings and rate fears led to reduced C fund exposure.
- • Extreme market volatility continues with 8 major daily moves in just 13 trading days
Week of October 20, 2018
High volatility week saw S&P end flat despite strong earnings. C fund breaks below key technical level, prompting more cautious TSP approach.
- • Markets showed extreme volatility with 1%+ daily moves on 5 of last 8 trading days
Week of October 13, 2018
S&P 500 volatility continues with major selloffs mid-week. Rising rates hit 7-year highs, pressuring stocks ahead of Q3 earnings season.
- • Stock market volatility persisted with major selloffs Wednesday-Thursday before Friday recovery
Week of October 06, 2018
S&P 500 pulls back from highs amid rising rates and volatility. TSP recommendation shifts small cap and international holdings to cash while maintaining C fund position.
- • Market showing weakness similar to January's correction that led to 10% drop in two weeks
September 2018
Week of September 29, 2018
S&P 500 dipped slightly but had strong quarter with record highs. TSP TIPS remains bullish on equity funds amid solid economy and low rates.
- • Markets hit record highs recently despite slight weekly decline and trade talk concerns
Week of September 22, 2018
S&P 500 and Dow hit new record highs while international markets showed strength. TSP recommendations favor C fund increase and new I fund allocation.
- • S&P 500 and Dow Jones hit new record highs, benefiting large cap C fund investors
Week of September 15, 2018
S&P 500 rebounded with 5 straight days of gains after Labor Day losses, reaching 2904 despite Friday trade tensions. TSP C and S funds maintain bullish signals.
- • Stock markets showed resilience, bouncing back from trade tariff news to finish positive
Week of September 08, 2018
Markets declined all four trading days despite positive jobs data. Trade tensions weigh on stocks, but C and S funds remain near record highs.
- • S&P 500 fell four straight days to 2871, pressured by ongoing trade and tariff concerns
Week of September 01, 2018
S&P 500 hit new record highs, with C and S funds advancing 8 of 9 weeks. Strong momentum continues above key technical breakout levels.
- • S&P 500 reached new record at 2901, maintaining strong upward momentum through summer
August 2018
Week of August 25, 2018
S&P 500 hits record high as longest bull market continues. Fed signals gradual rate hikes. C and S funds reach new highs with Buy signals.
- • S&P 500 closed at record high of 2874, marking the longest running bull market in history
Week of August 19, 2018
Markets showed high volatility but ended up for the week. Turkey concerns eased with China trade talks. S&P 500 nears record highs again.
- • High market volatility with triple-digit Dow moves, but S&P 500 finished week positive
Week of August 11, 2018
S&P 500 nearly posted sixth straight weekly gain but Turkish crisis concerns caused Friday selloff. C and S funds hit midweek records.
- • S&P 500 broke 5-week winning streak due to Turkish financial crisis fears on Friday
Week of August 04, 2018
S&P 500 extends winning streak to five weeks while Fed signals gradual rate hikes ahead. Apple hits $1 trillion milestone as TSP funds stay strong.
- • S&P 500 achieves fifth consecutive week of gains, boosting C Fund performance
July 2018
Week of July 28, 2018
S&P 500 posts fourth straight weekly gain amid strong GDP growth and earnings. C fund hits record high, prompting TSP allocation shift recommendation.
- • S&P 500 extended winning streak to four weeks with strong GDP growth at 4.1% and solid earnings
Week of July 21, 2018
S&P 500 flat as strong earnings offset market headwinds. S fund hits new high while I fund shows bearish signals with death cross pattern.
- • 83% of S&P companies beat Q2 earnings expectations with major earnings week ahead
Week of July 14, 2018
Markets gained 1.5%+ as trade war concerns eased, with S&P 500 hitting 2801. Strong earnings season ahead could drive further gains for C and S funds.
- • S&P 500 crossed 2800 for first time since February, boosting C fund performance prospects
Week of July 07, 2018
S&P 500 flat for week amid US-China trade tensions. Strong jobs report boosted Friday markets. TSP recommends holding current S and C fund allocations.
- • Markets treading water as $34B US-China trade dispute weighs on investor sentiment
June 2018
Week of June 30, 2018
First half 2018 shows S&P 500 trading sideways amid global trade fears and rate rises. TSP remains bullish on S&C funds based on moving averages.
- • 2018 market trading sideways in range, unlike 2017's steady upward trend throughout year
Week of June 23, 2018
GE exits Dow after 111 years as markets shift toward healthcare. Small caps and tech hit new highs while Dow snaps 9-day losing streak.
- • GE removed from Dow after worst 2-year performance, replaced by Walgreens drugstore chain
Week of June 16, 2018
S&P 500 flat despite North Korea summit, Fed rate hike, and China trade tariffs. TSP recommendation: stay 100% in equity funds.
- • Markets remained steady despite major events: North Korea summit, Fed rate hike, China tariffs
Week of June 09, 2018
S&P 500 hit 3-month highs despite trade tensions. Strong earnings drove gains. Recommending shift from I fund to C fund based on performance.
- • S&P 500 reached 3-month highs as earnings growth outweighed trade tension concerns
Week of June 02, 2018
S&P 500 ended flat after volatile week. Strong jobs report hit 18-year unemployment low. All TSP equity funds (C/S/I) strengthening with markets.
- • Strong jobs report with 18-year low unemployment may lead to more Fed rate hikes this year
May 2018
Week of May 27, 2018
S&P 500 closed positive at 2721 mid-range for 2018. Oil dropped sharply, North Korea summit uncertainty emerged. C and S funds strong, I fund weak.
- • S&P 500 finished week positive at 2721, sitting in middle of 2018's trading range
Week of May 19, 2018
Small-cap stocks hit record highs while Treasury yields rose above 3.1%. TSP equity funds remain technically strong despite trade tensions.
- • Small-cap stocks (S Fund) reached all-time highs despite rising interest rates and trade concerns
Week of May 12, 2018
S&P 500 broke above April highs and key moving averages, signaling bullish momentum. TSP recommends increasing equity fund exposure.
- • S&P 500 broke through resistance levels, closing at 2727 above its April high of 2708
Week of May 05, 2018
Markets stabilized despite slight S&P 500 decline. Strong jobs report showed healthy wage growth without inflation concerns. Current TSP allocation maintained.
- • S&P 500 down slightly but markets stabilized by week's end, affecting C Fund performance
April 2018
Week of April 28, 2018
S&P 500 flat as earnings gains offset rising rates. 10-year Treasury hits 3%, highest since 2014. TSP tip: increase I fund allocation.
- • 10-year Treasury yield broke 3% for first time since 2014, signaling rising rate environment
Week of April 21, 2018
S&P 500 fell to 2670 amid rising interest rates, with 10-year Treasury yields hitting 3% for first time since 2014. Markets showing weekend weakness pattern.
- • 10-year Treasury yields reached 3%, highest since 2014, pressuring stock markets downward
Week of April 14, 2018
S&P 500 fell to 2656 on bank weakness despite positive earnings outlook. Syrian strikes over weekend create uncertainty for Monday opening.
- • Bank shares dragged down equity markets despite encouraging first quarter earnings expectations
Week of April 07, 2018
S&P 500 fell to 2604 amid trade war fears and headline-driven volatility. TSP equity funds approached key technical support levels.
- • Markets shifted to headline-driven trading instead of economic data like unemployment reports
March 2018
Week of March 31, 2018
Q1 2018 ended flat despite tax cut rally. S&P 500 faces pressure from rising rates and trade tensions. TSP recommends holding equity allocations.
- • Markets essentially flat for 2018 after January tax cut rally faded due to rate/tariff fears
Week of March 23, 2018
Markets fell sharply on trade war escalation with China and Facebook's 13% drop. S&P 500 neared key technical support levels, prompting defensive positioning.
- • Trade tensions with China intensified as both countries imposed new tariffs on each other's goods
Week of March 17, 2018
Markets consolidated with S&P 500 at 2751 amid White House cabinet changes. New Fed Chair's first meeting may bring rate hike next week.
- • S&P 500 showed consolidation pattern, closing positive at 2751 despite cabinet departures
Week of March 10, 2018
Markets rallied on strong jobs data, with C and S funds crossing above key technical levels. Commentary recommends shifting from cash to equity funds.
- • Strong Friday jobs report drove market rally, pushing S&P 500 to 2786 for the week
Week of March 04, 2018
Markets showed volatility mid-week due to trade tariff concerns but ended positive. Current TSP allocation maintained pending Fed meeting next week.
- • Trade tariff headlines caused mid-week market volatility, ending with S&P 500 up at 2691
February 2018
Week of February 24, 2018
Markets rallied despite bond volatility after Fed minutes. S&P 500 closed at 2747. C and S funds show improved signals heading into next week.
- • S&P 500 recovered to close positive at 2747 after a volatile week of trading
Week of February 17, 2018
S&P 500 had best week since Jan 2013, TSP equity funds recovered above 50-day averages after correction, but analysts await confirmation signals.
- • S&P 500 posted best week since 2013 with six-day winning streak, signaling market recovery
Week of February 10, 2018
Markets experienced extreme volatility with massive daily swings. All TSP equity funds (C/S/I) fell below key technical levels for first time since 2016.
- • Markets saw extreme volatility with 1,000+ point Dow swings after calm 2017
Week of February 07, 2018
Markets experienced a flash crash with 500+ point daily losses, but percentage drops remain modest compared to historical crashes. Strategy remains data-driven.
- • Flash crash occurred after 15 months of steady gains, similar to Brexit 2016 and May 2010 events
Week of February 03, 2018
Markets hit worst week in 2 years after record highs, S&P 500 at 2762. Commentary recommends staying fully invested despite correction.
- • Markets corrected from overbought conditions after daily records, suffering worst week in 2 years
January 2018
Week of January 27, 2018
S&P 500 hits record high after strong GDP report. All three TSP equity funds (C, S, I) achieve record highs for fourth consecutive Friday.
- • January 2018 shows best stock market start since 1987 with S&P 500 reaching new records
Week of January 20, 2018
S&P 500 hit record high despite geopolitical concerns. Strong earnings beat expectations. All three TSP equity funds reached new records.
- • S&P 500 closed at record high of 2810, with earnings results beating market expectations
Week of January 13, 2018
S&P 500 hits record high at 2786 with all TSP equity funds (C/S/I) also reaching records. Best market start since 2003, but manage expectations.
- • All TSP equity funds (C, S, I) reached record highs alongside S&P 500's close at 2786
Week of January 06, 2018
All TSP equity funds hit new highs daily this week as markets surge, with S&P 500 gaining 70 points and Dow breaking 25,000.
- • All three TSP equity funds (C/S/I) reached new highs every day this week - a rare occurrence
Week of December 29, 2018
Historic market volatility with Dow's largest single-day gain ever, while TSP equity funds hit new lows. Recommendation to favor G fund safety.