TSP Market Summary: 2019
52 weekly market commentaries from 2019.
December 2019
Week of December 21, 2019
S&P 500 broke 3200 threshold with strong consumer spending and GDP growth. All TSP equity funds hit records, with C and S funds outperforming I fund.
- • S&P 500 closed at 3221 with strong economic data including 3.2% consumer spending growth
Week of December 14, 2019
Markets hit record highs on Fed rate pause, China trade deal progress, and Brexit clarity. C and I funds reached new highs with no TSP reallocation needed.
- • Fed signals no rate hikes in 2020 unless inflation rises, boosting market confidence
Week of December 07, 2019
Strong jobs report drove S&P 500 near record highs. TSP equity funds gained with bullish signals, but China trade deadline looms next week.
- • Jobs report crushed expectations with 266K jobs added, pushing unemployment to 1969 lows
November 2019
Week of November 30, 2019
Markets hit new records despite short week, with TSP equity funds at highs. No allocation changes recommended as current positioning aligns well.
- • Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 broke records Wednesday with November posting biggest gains since June
Week of November 23, 2019
S&P 500 paused after record highs, closing week slightly down at 3110. Trade deal uncertainty persists but market technicals remain healthy.
- • Markets took expected breather after 6 straight weeks of gains and Monday's record close
Week of November 16, 2019
Markets hit record highs on trade deal optimism. Dow reached 28,000, S&P 500 gained for 6th straight week. C and S funds at new highs.
- • Dow hit 28,000 milestone; S&P 500 had longest winning streak since 2017 on trade progress
Week of November 09, 2019
S&P 500 hit record highs for fifth straight week on trade optimism and strong earnings. TSP C and I funds in record territory, S fund positioned.
- • Markets hit new records driven by Phase One trade deal progress and 74% of companies beating earnings
Week of November 02, 2019
S&P 500 hit record highs above 3025 bullish breakout level. Fed rate cut, strong GDP, jobs data, and earnings drove gains in C and I funds.
- • S&P 500 achieved bullish breakout, closing at record high of 3066 on strong fundamentals
October 2019
Week of October 26, 2019
S&P 500 nears record highs as trade deal progress and strong earnings drive markets. C and I funds hit new records with bullish breakout potential.
- • S&P 500 trading near record highs with potential for bullish breakout above 3025 resistance
Week of October 19, 2019
Despite Dow's 255-point drop from Boeing/J&J news, 81% of S&P 500 earnings beat expectations. C and I funds near record highs as S&P 500 hit 3,000.
- • Strong earnings (81% beat estimates) overshadowed negative headlines from Boeing and J&J losses
Week of October 12, 2019
Positive trade news with China boosted markets, ending S&P 500's three-week decline. C and I funds crossed above key technical levels, prompting increased equity allocation.
- • US-China 'phase one' trade deal announcement drove major market rally on Friday
Week of October 05, 2019
Markets endured high volatility with 800-point Dow drop mid-week, but recovered on Fed rate cut hopes and strong jobs data, ending flat overall.
- • Markets swung wildly - down 800 points mid-week on manufacturing data, then recovered on jobs news
September 2019
Week of September 29, 2019
Trade uncertainty with China moved markets despite strong consumer spending. S fund weakened, prompting recommendation to shift allocation to G fund.
- • China trade talks resume Oct 10th, but new US investment limits reversed Friday gains
Week of September 21, 2019
S&P 500 stayed flat near 3000 as Fed cut rates 25 basis points, but trade tensions with China continued to create market uncertainty for TSP investors.
- • Fed rate cut provided market boost but trade war tensions offset gains
Week of September 14, 2019
Markets rally on US-China trade delay; S&P 500 hits 3000. Fed rate cut expected. All equity TSP funds outperforming bonds with strong technicals.
- • S&P 500 crossed 3000 threshold on US-China agreement to delay tariffs until October talks
Week of September 07, 2019
Markets rallied on renewed US-China trade talks despite weak jobs data. Equity funds outperformed bonds as indices crossed key technical levels.
- • US-China trade talks resuming in October boosted market confidence across all equity funds
Week of September 01, 2019
Trade wars and yield curve inversion created market volatility in August. F Fund hit record highs as bond demand surged amid economic uncertainty.
- • Trade war escalation and yield curve inversion signal potential recession risks ahead
August 2019
Week of August 24, 2019
US-China trade tensions and Fed uncertainty drove market volatility, erasing week's gains. F fund hit record highs as investors sought bond safety.
- • Trade war escalation wiped out six days of stock market gains in a single Friday session
Week of August 17, 2019
Market remains flat over 19 months despite volatility. Commentary highlights long-term performance challenges and recommends no TSP changes.
- • S&P 500 essentially flat since Jan 2018, closing within 1% of 19-month-old record high
Week of August 10, 2019
Markets swung wildly with Dow dropping 1,000+ points early week before recovering. Trade war tensions drove investors to bonds, boosting F fund performance.
- • Dow fell over 1,000 points Monday-Tuesday but recovered most losses by week's end
Week of August 03, 2019
Markets swung wildly on Fed rate cut concerns and trade tariff tensions despite strong jobs data. TSP recommendation: hold current allocations.
- • Fed rate cut delivered but Powell's dovish comments triggered major market volatility
July 2019
Week of July 27, 2019
Strong earnings and GDP growth drove S&P 500 to record highs, with C and S funds hitting new peaks and generating buy signals for TSP investors.
- • S&P 500 hit record close at 3025 with 76% of companies beating earnings expectations
Week of July 20, 2019
S&P 500 hit new high but sold off afterward. Fed signals July rate cut while 79% of companies beat earnings. All TSP equity funds move to hold status.
- • Markets consolidated after S&P 500 record high, with Fed confirming July rate cut expectations
Week of July 13, 2019
Markets hit new highs with Dow crossing 27,000 and S&P 500 topping 3,000 on Fed rate cut optimism. C and S funds reached record levels.
- • Dow and S&P 500 hit record highs driven by Fed Chair Powell's hint at lower interest rates
Week of July 06, 2019
Markets hit records after US-China trade truce, though jobs data sparked rate concerns. TSP equity funds showed strong performance versus bonds.
- • US-China trade truce boosted markets to record highs, with S&P 500 nearing 3,000 milestone
June 2019
Week of June 30, 2019
Markets showed consolidation after nine months of volatility. F fund hit 8th weekly high while C/S funds near records. Light trading expected for July 4th week.
- • S&P 500 essentially flat over nine months despite two major V-shaped volatility periods
Week of June 22, 2019
Fed signals future rate cuts, driving S&P 500 to record highs. F fund hits 7th consecutive weekly high while C and I funds break resistance levels.
- • Fed's 'patient' language on rates pushed S&P 500 to record close of 2954, breaking key resistance
Week of June 15, 2019
S&P 500 flat this week. Weak retail sales fuel rate cut speculation. F fund hits 6th consecutive record high. Current TSP allocation maintained.
- • S&P 500 stayed flat while weak May retail sales increased expectations for Fed rate cuts
Week of June 08, 2019
Markets rebounded strongly after Fed Chair Powell hinted at rate cuts, driven by weak jobs data fueling summer rate cut speculation.
- • S&P 500 had best week since November after Fed Chair Powell suggested possible rate cuts
Week of June 01, 2019
Trade war uncertainty drives equity weakness while bonds hit records. TSP equity funds drop below key technical levels, prompting reallocation.
- • Trade tensions with China/Mexico create market uncertainty, S&P 500 down 200 points from April highs
May 2019
Week of May 25, 2019
Trade war tensions push S&P 500 to 2826 as markets shift to bonds. TSP F fund hits record high while equity funds decline below 50-day averages.
- • Trade war uncertainty drives investors toward Treasury bonds, boosting F fund to record highs
Week of May 18, 2019
Markets rallied mid-week but ended weak on China trade concerns. TSP equity funds hover near key support levels while F Fund hits new highs.
- • China trade deal uncertainty continues driving market volatility and Friday's weakness
Week of May 11, 2019
Markets fell on Trump trade tweets and tariff hikes, but S&P 500 recovered Friday. F Fund hit historic highs amid volatility.
- • S&P 500 had worst week of year due to trade war tensions, but recovered Friday
Week of May 04, 2019
Markets hit record highs as unemployment reaches 50-year low of 3.6% and corporate earnings beat expectations. All TSP equity funds reached 2019 highs.
- • Unemployment at 3.6% is lowest in 50 years with strong graduate hiring projected for 2019
April 2019
Week of April 27, 2019
S&P 500 hit record high as GDP beat expectations at 3.2%. TSP C fund reached new peak while S fund hit 2019 high amid strong earnings season.
- • S&P 500 rose 1%+ to record high of 2939, driven by better-than-expected Q1 GDP of 3.2%
Week of April 20, 2019
Markets held steady above 2900 with strong earnings and China GDP data. TSP I Fund hit 2019 highs as global outlook improved during short trading week.
- • 78% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings expectations, supporting C Fund performance above 2900
Week of April 13, 2019
Strong earnings pushed S&P 500 near record highs while Fed held rates steady. All TSP equity funds hit 2019 highs as bond fund weakened.
- • S&P 500 closed at 2907, marking third straight weekly gain and nearing record high
Week of April 05, 2019
Markets posted second straight weekly gain as S&P 500 hit 2892. Strong jobs report and positive technical signals drove TSP equity funds to new 2019 highs.
- • S&P 500 within 2% of historic highs after strong 196K jobs report and low 3.8% unemployment
March 2019
Week of March 30, 2019
S&P 500 had best Q1 since 1998, recovering from brutal Q4 2018. TSP TIPS strategy outperformed with less volatility, planning to increase equity exposure.
- • Markets trending steadily upward with bullish 'Golden Cross' signals emerging across TSP funds
Week of March 23, 2019
Fed's dovish stance drove markets to 2019 highs, but yield curve inversion signals recession risk, creating mixed signals for TSP funds.
- • First yield curve inversion since 2007 raises recession concerns despite market highs
Week of March 16, 2019
Markets gained with both bonds and stocks rising together. S&P 500 recovered halfway to record highs as China trade talks progress and volatility stays low.
- • Both bond (F fund) and stock funds (C/S/I) moved higher together, a positive market signal
Week of March 09, 2019
Weak jobs data triggered market decline and early rotation from stocks to bonds, with F fund outperforming equity funds amid economic slowdown concerns.
- • Jobs report missed expectations, pushing S&P 500 down to 2743 amid economic slowdown fears
Week of March 02, 2019
S&P 500 hits 2800 for first time since November. Positive China trade talks offset North Korea concerns. TSP technical indicators suggest continued uptrend.
- • S&P 500 reached 2800, highest level since November, boosting C Fund performance
February 2019
Week of February 23, 2019
S&P 500 gains on optimistic U.S.-China trade talks ahead of March deadline. Technical indicators show bullish momentum for TSP equity funds.
- • U.S.-China trade progress boosting investor confidence with potential March deadline extension
Week of February 17, 2019
Markets continued strong rally with Dow up 8th straight week. C and S funds crossed key technical levels amid trade talks and shutdown avoidance.
- • Dow posted 8th consecutive weekly gain as markets recover from fall's 'irrational sell-off'
Week of February 09, 2019
Markets consolidated with S&P 500 flat at 2707. Fed turned dovish, yields dropped. C Fund neared key technical level while F Fund gained strength.
- • Fed shifted to accommodating stance, reducing rate hike concerns and lowering bond yields
Week of February 02, 2019
Markets rebounded in January after December's drop, with S&P 500 at 2706. Strong jobs report boosted confidence, but caution remains due to mixed signals.
- • January market rebound driven by strong jobs report showing 100 months of continuous growth
January 2019
Week of January 26, 2019
Markets recovered mid-week on Fed balance sheet news, trade optimism, and government reopening. No TSP changes recommended with limited trading days.
- • Fed closer to ending balance sheet unwind, reducing future rate hike concerns
Week of January 19, 2019
S&P 500 gained for four weeks since Christmas low, driven by Fed dovishness and improving China trade talks. All TSP equity funds above 50-day averages.
- • Fed Chairman signals patience on rate hikes, boosting market confidence since Christmas Eve low
Week of January 12, 2019
Markets showed stability with 5 of 6 positive days and no daily moves over 1%. TSP equity funds showing improved performance signals.
- • Market volatility decreased significantly with no daily moves exceeding 1% this week
Week of January 05, 2019
2018 saw worst December since 1931 with extreme volatility increasing 8-fold. TSP commentary suggests holding current allocation amid uncertainties.
- • 2018 market volatility increased dramatically with 64 daily 1%+ moves vs only 8 in 2017
Week of December 28, 2019
S&P 500 hit new highs during short Christmas week, extending gains to 5 straight weeks. TSP equity funds followed with record closes.