We’ve now seen the end of 2018 and in summary, the markets had their worst December since 1931 and worst year in a decade. Overall, the S&P 500 closed the year at 2506, down 6.24 percent. If there was one word to sum up 2018 it would be “Volatility” based on the following:<br>• In 2017 the S&P 500 had daily moves of 1 percent or more eight times. <br>• In 2018, the S&P 500 had daily moves of 1 percent or more 64 times, increasing “eight fold”. <br>• In 2017, these moves occurred less than once a month while in 2018 it was more than once a week <br>• December 2018 alone had nine of these 1 percent moves, more than all of 2017. <br>Next let’s look at intraday volatility, or the range the market moves between its open at 0930 and close at 1600. <br>• In 2017 there were ten intraday market moves of 1 percent or more. <br>• In 2018, we crossed the century mark and finished the year with 109 intraday market moves of 1 percent or more, or ten times the rate of 2017. <br>For TSP TIPS, we finished 2018 basically flat with a slight loss of 0.5 percent, and it sure was nice to be in the G fund since 24 November. Looking further back, we’re up 26.7 percent over the last three years. So where do we go in 2019? Based on Thursday and Friday’s market moves it looks like more of the same. Bottom line is that the markets dislike “uncertainty” and we have plenty of that now with trade wars, interest rates, border security and most pressing for some of our subscribers, the government shutdown. As such, we are going to hold course with the current allocation.
We’ve now seen the end of 2018 and in summary, the markets had their worst December since 1931 and worst year in a decade. Overall, the S&P 500 closed the year at 2506, down 6.24 percent. If there was one word to sum up 2018 it would be “Volatility” based on the following:<br>• In 2017 the S&P 500 had daily moves of 1 percent or more eight times. <br>• In 2018, the S&P 500 had daily moves of 1 percent or more 64 times, increasing “eight fold”. <br>• In 2017, these moves occurred less than once a month while in 2018 it was more than once a week <br>• December 2018 alone had nine of these 1 percent moves, more than all of 2017. <br>Next let’s look at intraday volatility, or the range the market moves between its open at 0930 and close at 1600. <br>• In 2017 there were ten intraday market moves of 1 percent or more. <br>• In 2018, we crossed the century mark and finished the year with 109 intraday market moves of 1 percent or more, or ten times the rate of 2017. <br>For TSP TIPS, we finished 2018 basically flat with a slight loss of 0.5 percent, and it sure was nice to be in the G fund since 24 November. Looking further back, we’re up 26.7 percent over the last three years. So where do we go in 2019? Based on Thursday and Friday’s market moves it looks like more of the same. Bottom line is that the markets dislike “uncertainty” and we have plenty of that now with trade wars, interest rates, border security and most pressing for some of our subscribers, the government shutdown. As such, we are going to hold course with the current allocation.