TSP Market Summary: Week of March 02, 2019

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • S&P 500 reached 2800, highest level since November, boosting C Fund performance
  • Technical indicators show reduced volatility, suggesting more stable upward trend ahead
  • No TSP allocation changes recommended; preserving monthly exchanges for later opportunities

The S&P 500 crossed the 2800 mark for the first time since last November, closing at 2803 on Friday. On the diplomatic front, we had pros and cons. While there was no North Korean denuclearization deal, China trade talks are proving more positive with senior U.S. trade officials making statements ranging from "made a lot" to "fantastic" progress with hopes of a final deal in mid-March. For next week we are hoping for a strong monthly employment report after some disappointing February economic reports. From a TSP TIPS technical perspective, we remain positive as the Bollinger Band Index (BBI) for both the C and S funds are at their lowest levels (C BBI: 51%) since the beginning of last October. This is significant as a low BBI signals more sustainment in the current bullish trend instead of the volatility (C BBI on Dec 27: 182%) associated with the last six months. As such, we are recommending no allocation changes thereby leaving both our monthly exchanges available during the rest of March.