TSP Market Summary: Week of September 29, 2019

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • China trade talks resume Oct 10th, but new US investment limits reversed Friday gains
  • S fund dropped below 50-day average, losing bullish outlook unlike C/I/F funds
  • Strong consumer spending (4.6% growth) supports economy despite 2% GDP growth

Political headlines and trade uncertainty moved the markets this week with the S&P 500 closing at 2961. Even though talks between U.S. and China will resume October 10th in our nation\'s capital, new concerns of the White House limiting U.S. investment in China reversed Friday morning\'s stock market gains. On the economic front this week, GDP remains at a moderate two percent. A highlight of this was the contribution from consumer spending, which grew at a strong 4.6 percent rate, underscoring the Federal Reserve\'s confidence in consumer strength. Next week we have the monthly employment data on Friday. For TSP TIPS, our scope of investment options is centered around the three equity funds (C/S/I), the bond fund (F), and cash (G). Each week we look at the performance ranking and two sets (one short period/one long period) of each fund (C/S/I/F). While each of these funds have a positive performance ranking, the S fund has now been displaced out of the top three. Additionally, the C/I/F funds have bullish outlooks with their prices above their 50 day moving average, which is above their 200 day moving average. Last week the S fund had this same sequence, but this week its price dipped below its 50 day moving average. Based on this shift, we are recommending taking advantage of the TSP “third” transaction of the month and moving the S fund allocation to the G fund. The overall allocation would be as follows.

Recommended Allocation (Moderate Profile)

This is our historical recommendation from this date. For current recommendations, subscribe.

G FundF FundC FundS FundI Fund
20% 0% 45% 0% 35%