TSP Market Summary: 2020
57 weekly market commentaries from 2020.
December 2020
Week of December 19, 2020
S&P 500 hit new records amid COVID vaccine rollout and Fed support. Tesla's historic S&P entry caused unusual trading. No TSP reallocation needed.
- • S&P 500 reached new record highs 4 out of 5 weeks on vaccine progress and Fed support
Week of December 12, 2020
UK and US COVID vaccine rollouts drove markets higher, with S&P 500 hitting record 3700+ before stalling stimulus talks caused weekly decline.
- • All TSP equity funds (C, S, I) hit new record highs despite S&P 500's first weekly drop
Week of December 05, 2020
November delivered historic gains across major indices, with small caps leading at 18%+. All TSP equity funds hit new highs as volatility pressure eased.
- • November saw record monthly gains: Dow up 11.8%, S&P 500 up 10.8%, small caps soared 18%+
November 2020
Week of November 28, 2020
Third COVID vaccine breakthrough plus Janet Yellen Treasury nomination drove markets to new highs. All three TSP equity funds hit records.
- • Multiple COVID vaccine breakthroughs and Yellen nomination fueled strong market rally across all sectors
Week of November 21, 2020
S&P 500 hit records early but finished down for the week. COVID vaccine progress and stimulus talks supported markets despite rising cases.
- • S&P 500 up 9% in November despite first weekly decline, driven by vaccine optimism
Week of November 14, 2020
Markets surged on Pfizer vaccine news, with all TSP equity funds hitting record highs. Small caps led gains as investors rotated to recovery sectors.
- • Pfizer's 90% effective COVID vaccine sparked rotation from pandemic to recovery sectors
Week of November 08, 2020
Election week brought gains across all major indices, with unemployment dropping below 7% and 638K jobs added. All TSP equity funds returned to buy zone.
- • Strong jobs report (638K added, unemployment <7%) drove market gains during election week
October 2020
Week of October 31, 2020
S&P 500 struggled with COVID, stalled stimulus, and election uncertainty. TSP strategy remains cautious with funds mostly in cash ahead of election.
- • Markets faced triple headwinds: COVID lockdowns, stalled stimulus talks, and election uncertainty
Week of October 28, 2020
S&P 500 broke below key technical levels amid volatility, prompting defensive TSP reallocation recommendations for federal employees.
- • S&P 500 fell below 50-day moving average with continued downward momentum signals
Week of October 24, 2020
S&P 500 remains flat for two months amid election uncertainty. S fund leads TSP performance, followed by C fund. Current allocation maintained.
- • Markets have been stagnant for two months, holding steady around 3465-3478 range
Week of October 17, 2020
Markets showed volatility with frequent gap opens but S&P 500 ended flat. S fund hit new highs while election uncertainty keeps allocations steady.
- • Frequent gap opens showed high volatility, but S&P 500 finished week essentially flat at 3483
Week of October 10, 2020
S&P 500 posted best week since July on stimulus hopes, but technical indicators show overbought conditions similar to September's peak.
- • S&P 500 had strongest week since July, approaching new highs on COVID stimulus progress
Week of October 03, 2020
September gave back August gains, ending 5-month win streak. S&P 500 broke 4-week slide but remains volatile amid election uncertainty.
- • September reversed August gains, breaking a five-month winning streak for stocks
September 2020
Week of September 26, 2020
Markets extended losses for fourth straight week amid COVID/election uncertainty. All TSP index funds fell below key technical levels.
- • Stock markets suffered fourth consecutive week of declines due to multiple uncertainties
Week of September 19, 2020
S&P 500 fell for third straight week despite Fed's zero-rate pledge. TSP equity funds show narrowing performance gap with potential changes ahead.
- • Markets declined despite Fed keeping rates near zero until economic recovery is complete
Week of September 12, 2020
Markets posted second week of losses with S&P 500 at 3,340. Technical indicators suggest potential consolidation period ahead of election.
- • S&P 500 and major indices fell below 50-day moving averages, signaling potential weakness
Week of September 05, 2020
S&P 500 posted best August since 1986 with 7%+ gains and hit record highs, but tech selloff and profit-taking ended the streak before Labor Day.
- • August delivered strongest gains since 1986, marking fifth consecutive month of growth
August 2020
Week of August 29, 2020
S&P 500 hits record highs in August's best performance since 1986. Fed's new inflation policy boosts markets. C and S funds reach new peaks.
- • S&P 500 on track for best August since 1986, closing at record high of 3,508
Week of August 22, 2020
S&P 500 hit new record highs, erasing COVID losses in just 6 months. C Fund reached new highs while S Fund trails by 2%.
- • S&P 500 set new records, completing fastest bear-to-bull market recovery in history at 181 days
Week of August 15, 2020
Markets approached record highs as jobless claims fell below 1M and retail sales hit records. C fund set new high while S&P 500 faces resistance.
- • C fund broke through to record high at $49.99, outperforming the broader S&P 500 index
Week of August 08, 2020
Strong July jobs report and 6-day S&P 500 rally bring market within 1% of record highs. S and C funds maintain strong post-COVID performance.
- • July added 1.76M jobs with unemployment falling to 10.2% - third straight month of improvement
Week of August 01, 2020
Big Tech earnings exceeded expectations despite Congressional scrutiny, driving NASDAQ gains. GDP dropped 32.9% but S&P 500 posted 4 straight monthly gains.
- • Tech stocks surged on strong earnings, with Apple gaining 11% and becoming world's most valuable company
July 2020
Week of July 25, 2020
S&P 500 broke resistance despite COVID surge and tech weakness. C and S funds showing bullish signals with upward trending moving averages.
- • S&P 500 broke above key resistance level despite coronavirus hot spots and tech sector weakness
Week of July 20, 2020
S&P 500 hit 3251 triggering reallocation alert as mega-tech surged 2.88% while small caps declined, prompting trend-following strategy shift.
- • S&P 500 crossed 3233 threshold at 3251, triggering predicted reallocation alert
Week of July 18, 2020
COVID concerns persist while Moderna vaccine trials show promise. S&P 500 approaches resistance levels, potentially triggering TSP reallocation signals.
- • Moderna vaccine trials provide hope amid continued COVID geographical spread affecting markets
Week of July 11, 2020
COVID records hit as NASDAQ and S&P 500 reach new highs. S&P 500's Golden Cross signals bullish momentum, favoring C Fund allocation over F Fund.
- • NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 hit new highs despite rising COVID cases, driven by mega tech stocks
Week of July 03, 2020
Markets hit records despite COVID surge. S&P 500 gained 20% in Q2, F fund reached new highs. Current allocation maintained amid consolidation.
- • S&P 500 posted best quarter since 1998 with nearly 20% gains despite COVID case records
June 2020
Week of June 29, 2020
S&P 500 recovered from early dip below 3000 to close at 3053, staying above key support level. TSP allocation unchanged due to strong finish.
- • S&P 500 showed resilience, recovering from below 3000 to close at 3053 despite weak opening
Week of June 27, 2020
Markets hit critical support levels as COVID surges. Bond yields at record lows boost F Fund. S&P 500 below 200-day average signals caution.
- • S&P 500 closed at 3009, dangerously close to breaking below key 3002 support level
Week of June 20, 2020
Markets rose despite COVID resurgence concerns. Fed pledged continued support with zero rates. S&P 500 trading in 230-point range.
- • S&P 500 gained weekly despite Apple store reclosures and record California COVID cases
Week of June 14, 2020
S&P 500 gave back 5% weekly gains in one day, ending flat over two weeks. Fed signals rates near zero through 2022 amid COVID reopening concerns.
- • Market volatility high - 5% weekly gain erased in single day, suggesting uncertain direction
Week of June 11, 2020
S&P 500 dropped 5.89% on reopening concerns, ending historic rally. TSP equity funds hit new highs before sharp reversal prompted risk reduction advice.
- • S&P 500's worst day since March ended the largest 50-day rally in history
Week of June 06, 2020
S&P 500 surged 5% on strong jobs report, nearing pre-COVID highs. TSP equity funds (C/S/I) all trading above key technical levels.
- • S&P 500 gained 5% this week, driven by record 2.5 million jobs added in May
May 2020
Week of May 30, 2020
S&P 500 broke above 3000 and 200-day moving average, with C and S funds hitting new highs since March lows. Markets show continued bullish momentum.
- • S&P 500 surged past 3000 milestone and broke above key 200-day moving average resistance
Week of May 24, 2020
Markets surged on Moderna vaccine news and state reopenings, with S&P 500 gapping up 2% Monday. Small caps outperformed with 7% weekly gains.
- • Moderna vaccine news and state reopenings drove strong market gains across all sectors
Week of May 16, 2020
S&P 500 trades in 200-point range despite record retail sales decline. Consumer sentiment rises on stimulus hopes, suggesting potential bullish breakout.
- • S&P 500 range-bound between 2736-2939, crossing 2863 level seven times in four weeks
Week of May 09, 2020
S&P 500 continues April rebound despite record unemployment of 14.7%. Markets optimistic on reopening plans and CARES Act support.
- • Markets rebounding on state reopening optimism despite 20M jobs lost and 14.7% unemployment
Week of May 02, 2020
April delivered S&P 500's biggest monthly gain since 1987. TSP made two C fund increases amid COVID-19 recovery hopes and FDA drug approval.
- • S&P 500 posted third-largest monthly gain since WWII, recovering from March lows
April 2020
Week of April 25, 2020
S&P 500 recovered half its losses from February highs. C fund showed positive signals, triggering potential equity reallocation using TIPS strategy.
- • S&P 500 at 2,836 recovered about half the decline from February all-time highs
Week of April 18, 2020
S&P 500 posted back-to-back weekly gains as COVID curve flattens and Gilead reports promising treatment results. C fund shows positive signals.
- • S&P 500 had first back-to-back weekly gains since February despite 22M job losses
Week of April 11, 2020
Markets showed bullish trend over 3 weeks amid coronavirus stabilization. S&P 500 at midpoint of 52-week range suggests balanced outlook for TSP investors.
- • S&P 500 recovered to midpoint between 52-week highs and lows after extreme volatility
Week of April 04, 2020
S&P 500 fell 2% amid worst jobs report since 2009. Death cross signal appeared, but extreme volatility may suggest limited downside ahead.
- • S&P 500 triggered bearish 'death cross' signal after falling to 2488 on terrible jobs data
March 2020
Week of March 28, 2020
S&P 500 hit historic 30% decline in just 22 days. Markets volatile despite $2 trillion relief bill progress. TSP TIPS remains in cash position.
- • S&P 500 experienced fastest 30% decline ever, surpassing Great Depression records
Week of March 21, 2020
Historic market volatility continues with S&P 500 breaking key support levels. Commentary recommends moving to sidelines amid coronavirus fears.
- • S&P 500 had 4%+ daily moves on 9 of last 10 trading days showing extreme volatility
Week of March 14, 2020
Extreme market volatility driven by coronavirus fears, with daily S&P moves of 4-9%. Technical indicators suggest potential bullish reversal ahead.
- • Markets saw historic volatility with S&P 500 swinging 4-9% daily amid coronavirus uncertainty
Week of March 07, 2020
Coronavirus fears drove extreme market volatility with Fed emergency rate cut. F fund hit record highs while stocks declined sharply.
- • Fed emergency rate cut caused historic F fund gains - only 3rd time ever exceeding 1% daily move
February 2020
Week of February 29, 2020
S&P 500 dropped 12.79% in 7 days due to coronavirus fears, marking fastest decline from record high. Bond funds hit new highs as rates fell.
- • Market entered correction territory with fastest decline from record high in S&P 500 history
Week of February 26, 2020
Markets fell 7.97% in 5 days due to coronavirus concerns, prompting TSP TIPS to recommend moving from equity funds to safer G fund allocations.
- • S&P 500 dropped 7.97% in just 5 trading days after hitting record highs last Wednesday
Week of February 22, 2020
S&P 500 hit record highs mid-week before coronavirus concerns caused Friday selloff. Bond yields fell to historic lows. Most TSP funds reached new peaks.
- • S&P 500 reached record 3386 on Wednesday but fell Friday on coronavirus outbreak news
Week of February 16, 2020
S&P 500 hits new highs for second week; TSP C, F, and S funds all reach records while coronavirus fears appear priced in by markets.
- • S&P 500 closed at record high of 3,380 with strong earnings from 77% of reporting companies
Week of February 08, 2020
Markets hit record highs on China trade progress and strong earnings. C and F funds both reached new peaks. No allocation changes recommended.
- • S&P 500 and C fund hit record highs on China tariff reduction and strong corporate earnings
Week of February 01, 2020
Markets fell on coronavirus fears despite strong earnings. Fed held rates steady. F fund hit record highs while C fund leads equity funds.
- • Coronavirus outbreak triggered market selloff, but decline remains modest at 3% vs 10% in 2018
January 2020
Week of January 25, 2020
Markets pulled back this week as coronavirus fears drove Treasury rates to lowest levels since November. TSP strategy shifts defensive with F fund.
- • Dow fell below 29,000 and S&P 500 dropped below 3,300 as coronavirus concerns weighed on markets
Week of January 19, 2020
S&P 500 hit record highs on trade deals, strong economic data, and positive earnings. TSP equity funds outperforming with incremental strategy.
- • Markets reached records driven by trade progress, housing surge, and strong corporate earnings
Week of January 11, 2020
Markets hit new highs despite geopolitical volatility. Positive 'first five days' indicator suggests good 2020 outlook for TSP equity funds.
- • S&P 500 and Dow hit record highs despite overnight volatility from geopolitical concerns
Week of January 04, 2020
Markets hit records early week before geopolitical tensions caused Friday selloff. All TSP equity funds remain strong with buy signals intact.
- • S&P 500 hit record highs Thursday before drone attack concerns triggered Friday decline
Week of December 26, 2020
Small cap stocks hit new highs for 8 straight weeks while S&P 500 consolidated. Santa Claus Rally period begins with historical 1.4% average gains.