TSP Market Summary: Week of June 20, 2020

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • S&P 500 gained weekly despite Apple store reclosures and record California COVID cases
  • Fed Chair Powell pledged zero rates until economic recovery is secure, supporting bond funds
  • Markets consolidating in 3002-3232 range; breakout could trigger allocation changes

COVID reopening continues to grab the news headlines. From a practical perspective, I’ve seen a marked increase in traffic over the last few weeks as more and more businesses are reopening. However, on the flip side Apple has said it’s “reclosing” a total of 11 stores in Florida, Arizona, South Carolina and North Carolina. Additionally, on Thursday California reported more than 4,000 new cases in a single day, the highest daily number ever. To calm the markets, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be making three speeches this week in which he will reiterate that second-quarter GDP is likely to be the "most severe on record", and that interest rates will remain virtually at zero "until we are confident that the economy has weathered recent events". All told, the S&P 500 was up for the week closing at 3097. Continuing with last week’s storyline where I mentioned that “this week could provide some perspective regarding the market’s future direction”, it seems as if we are firming up that 230 point range bound channel between 3002 and 3232. In fact the median close was on Wednesday when the S&P 500 finished the day at 3113, pretty much right in the middle. For TSP TIPS, we’ll echo that median sentiment and are recommending keeping our present allocation. However, if we do break out in either direction, stand by for an “Intraweek Reallocation Alert”.