TSP Market Summary: Week of October 31, 2020

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • Markets faced triple headwinds: COVID lockdowns, stalled stimulus talks, and election uncertainty
  • TSP strategy turned cautious with majority of funds moved to cash due to technical breakdown
  • Historical data shows markets perform better after re-elections (9.6%) vs new presidents (4.8%)

This week we had the Trifecta with coronavirus causing global lockdowns, fiscal stimulus talks stalled, and the election just days away. As such, the S&P 500 had a rough week with a resultant breakdown in technical indicators. Thursday brought a welcome boost to the market after better-than-expected GDP and jobless claims, but it was not a pleasant Friday. At 1445 the S&P 500 dropped below that 3236 support level that I mentioned in the mid-week alert. However, it did recover in the final hour to close at 3269. Next week we have the election and here is some historical data from LPL Financial. “Since 1950, the S&P 500 has added an average of 9.6% in the year after a president wins re-election. However, the data also shows the S&P 500 added only 4.8% the following year of a new presidency, and it has been higher only 50% of the time.” We’ll see what happens but for TSP TIPS, we’ll continue to monitor our technical indicators and as such have taken a cautious perspective with the majority of funds in cash.