TSP Market Summary: Week of December 26, 2020

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • Russell 2000 small caps outperformed with daily highs, benefiting S fund investors
  • Santa Claus Rally historically delivers 1.4% gains in final trading days of year
  • S fund hit new highs on 23 of last 34 days, prompting increased allocations

While the S&P 500 had a “consolidation week”, the Russell 2000 Small Cap stock index stole the show as it has been making new highs on almost a daily basis and is now up for eight weeks in a row. Overseas, after nearly four years since Britain left the European Union, negotiations have finally resulted in an agreement. Closer to home, we still have the stimulus bill in that “uncertainty” category this Christmas long weekend. And speaking of Christmas, we are now in “Santa Claus Rally” time, which is the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days after New Year\'s. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Santa Claus Rally has yielded positive returns in 34 of the past 45 holiday seasons with an average cumulative return of 1.4%. With the S&P 500 closing up 0.35% on Friday at 3703, let’s see if we can pick up another 1% over the next six days with a target of 3743. For TSP TIPS, the Small Cap S fund made new record highs on Monday through Wednesday, taking a breather on Christmas Eve. Going back to 5 November, the S fund has now hit new highs on 23 of the last 34 days. Over that time, we have increased the S fund allocation in step with this pace and will be recommending a slight increase again this week. Lastly, we also wish all our TSP TIPS subscribers a Happy New Year as we look forward to improving conditions in 2021.

Recommended Allocation (Moderate Profile)

This is our historical recommendation from this date. For current recommendations, subscribe.

G FundF FundC FundS FundI Fund
0% 0% 20% 60% 20%