TSP Market Summary: 2021
58 weekly market commentaries from 2021.
December 2021
Week of December 18, 2021
S&P 500 fell to 4620 on tech weakness and 9.6% producer price inflation. Fed announced faster bond tapering and 3 rate hikes in 2022.
- • Fed announced aggressive policy with faster bond tapering and multiple rate hikes through 2024
Week of December 11, 2021
S&P 500 hit record high despite 6.8% inflation. C fund earned A rating while S, I, F funds got F grades, driving TSP reallocation recommendation.
- • S&P 500 closed at record 4712 after best week since February on milder omicron variant news
Week of December 04, 2021
S&P 500 dropped 1.2% with high volatility, but similar patterns in September led to new highs. C Fund maintains hold rating with no allocation changes.
- • S&P 500 fell 1.2% with four days of 1%+ swings, similar to September's volatile pattern
November 2021
Week of November 27, 2021
Markets dropped 2.27% on Black Friday due to new COVID variant fears, but historical patterns suggest potential recovery within weeks.
- • New COVID variant news caused significant Friday selloff after calm holiday week start
Week of November 20, 2021
S&P 500 hit near-record highs despite inflation concerns, with strong retail sales and earnings. C Fund outperforming S Fund signals potential reallocation.
- • S&P 500 reached near-record levels with 81% of companies beating earnings expectations
Week of November 13, 2021
S&P 500 hit records early week but pulled back on hot inflation data. C and S funds reached new highs despite inflation concerns.
- • Inflation hit 6.2% annually, highest since 1990, causing market pullback after early highs
Week of November 06, 2021
Markets hit record highs as Fed announces bond tapering plan and jobs data beats expectations. C and S funds posted strong gains with multiple new highs.
- • S&P 500 closed at record highs 10 of last 12 days, with C fund matching this performance
October 2021
Week of October 30, 2021
S&P 500 hit best month since Nov 2020 with record highs driven by strong earnings. C Fund mirrored gains while recommendation remains no changes.
- • S&P 500 set 4 new record highs this week with 80% of companies beating earnings estimates
Week of October 23, 2021
TSP TIPS launches ProFunds TIPS service offering daily reallocations and leveraged funds for IRAs and taxable accounts beyond TSP limits.
- • New ProFunds TIPS service offers daily reallocations vs TSP's twice-monthly limit
Week of October 21, 2021
S&P 500 and S Fund hit new record highs, with TSP C and S funds reaching peaks on Wednesday, prompting a recommended portfolio reallocation.
- • S&P 500 closed at record high of 4,549, signaling continued market strength
Week of October 16, 2021
Markets surged on strong earnings with S&P 500 near records. TSP equity funds crossed bullish technical levels, prompting recommendation to increase stock exposure.
- • S&P 500 rallied to within 2% of record highs as 80% of companies beat earnings expectations
Week of October 09, 2021
S&P 500 had best week since August despite volatility. Debt ceiling deal and mixed jobs data moved markets. TSP equity funds remain range-bound.
- • Markets rebounded strongly after debt ceiling deal reached through December 3rd
Week of October 02, 2021
September saw worst S&P 500 drop since March 2020, ending at -4.8%. TSP equity funds remain below key technical levels as market volatility increases.
- • S&P 500 fell 4.8% in September, worst month since pandemic with 7-month win streak broken
September 2021
Week of September 28, 2021
Broad market selloff triggered four technical warning signals across TSP equity funds, with S&P 500 breaking key support levels and recommendations for reduced equity exposure.
- • All three TSP equity funds (C/S/I) fell below 50-day averages and dropped over 2.5% from highs
Week of September 25, 2021
S&P 500 had volatile week amid China Evergrande concerns but recovered after Fed held rates steady. TSP equity funds rebounded above key levels.
- • China Evergrande debt crisis sparked Monday selloff, but Fed's unchanged policy fueled recovery
Week of September 18, 2021
S&P 500 fell for second week amid September volatility, but technical indicators suggest consolidation. Fed meeting next week key for markets.
- • S&P 500 dropped second consecutive week, closing at 4432 amid typical September weakness
Week of September 11, 2021
S&P 500 fell 5 straight days amid inflation concerns. Producer prices hit 8.3% annually. TSP recommendation: reduce equity allocation, add I fund.
- • S&P 500 down 5 consecutive days with concerning technical weakness across all trading metrics
Week of September 05, 2021
S&P 500 hit record highs in August with 7th straight monthly gain, but jobs report disappointed. All TSP equity funds reached new highs this week.
- • S&P 500 posted best winning streak since 2017 with 7 consecutive monthly gains
August 2021
Week of August 28, 2021
S&P 500 hit record highs above 4500 as Fed Chairman Powell announced bond purchase tapering plans, boosting market confidence and TSP C Fund performance.
- • Fed's clarity on tapering $120B monthly bond purchases reduced market uncertainty
Week of August 21, 2021
S&P 500 recovered to 4441 after mid-week dip on retail sales decline and Fed tapering talk. C Fund hit new highs while S and I Funds lagged.
- • S&P 500 achieved fastest bull market doubling in history, up from March 2020 lows
Week of August 14, 2021
S&P 500 hit four straight daily highs despite mixed economic data including rising inflation and weak consumer sentiment. C and I funds reached new records.
- • Markets showed resilience with S&P 500 setting records 7 of last 9 days despite inflation concerns
Week of August 07, 2021
Markets hit new highs with strong July jobs data showing 943k jobs added. C Fund mirrored S&P 500 gains while S and I Funds showed improvement.
- • S&P 500 and Dow hit multiple record highs this week driven by strong earnings season
July 2021
Week of July 31, 2021
S&P 500 hit 6th positive month despite Big Tech earnings disappointment. Fed holds rates, GDP at 6.5%, inflation rises. C fund leads TSP performance.
- • Major tech stocks fell despite strong market run, with Amazon down 7.5% after earnings
Week of July 24, 2021
Markets hit record highs after Monday's COVID-driven sell-off. C Fund leads TSP performance rankings with strong tech gains ahead of earnings.
- • All major indices closed at record highs despite Monday's COVID concerns and market dump
Week of July 17, 2021
S&P 500 ended 3-week win streak as inflation hit 5.4%. C fund shows strength while S and I funds signal weakness, prompting defensive shift.
- • Inflation surged to 5.4%, highest since 2008, overshadowing strong Q2 earnings reports
Week of July 10, 2021
Markets hit new record highs despite holiday week, with S&P 500 gaining 6 of last 7 weeks. C and S funds lead TSP performance with continued buy signals.
- • S&P 500 hit 2 more record highs this week, marking 6 gains in 7 weeks for strong momentum
Week of July 03, 2021
S&P 500 hit new record highs all week with steady gains. Strong June jobs report added 850K jobs, boosting C and S fund performance.
- • S&P 500 reached new record highs daily with controlled, low-volatility gains
June 2021
Week of June 26, 2021
S&P 500 hit record high of 4,280 after volatile week. Infrastructure deal and Fed inflation stance drove markets up, benefiting TSP C Fund.
- • S&P 500 reached record high, boosting C Fund performance despite daily volatility
Week of June 19, 2021
S&P 500 fell from record highs after Fed raised inflation forecasts and added rate hikes. TSP equity funds near key support levels, defensive move suggested.
- • Fed raised 2021 inflation expectations to 3.4% and added two 2023 rate hikes, pressuring markets
Week of June 12, 2021
S&P 500 hit record highs despite 5% inflation as markets digested CPI data well. I Fund and C Fund both reached new peaks, supporting current TSP allocation strategy.
- • S&P 500 broke resistance to hit record high of 4247, benefiting C Fund performance
Week of June 05, 2021
S&P 500 neared record highs amid strong job growth. TSP C and I funds hit new highs on Friday with low market volatility overall.
- • Strong job growth in May with 559K payrolls added and unemployment dropping to 5.8%
May 2021
Week of May 29, 2021
S&P 500 posted fourth straight positive month in May with low volatility. Strong economic data offset by range-bound trading ahead of jobs report.
- • S&P 500 completed fourth consecutive positive month despite trading in narrow range
Week of May 22, 2021
S&P 500 ended flat after early gains, forming a range-bound market between 4053-4232. I fund showing strength with buy signal vs C fund.
- • Market forming trading range between 4053-4232 support/resistance levels after mixed week
Week of May 16, 2021
Markets formed 'Big V' pattern with mid-week inflation fears followed by rebound. S&P 500 down 1%+ for week despite Friday recovery.
- • Higher inflation data sparked mid-week selloff before Thursday-Friday market recovery
Week of May 13, 2021
Markets declined sharply after inflation hit 13-year high at 4.2%. TSP strategy shifts toward defensive positioning with reduced equity exposure.
- • Inflation surged to 4.2%, highest since 2008, triggering market selloff and recession fears
Week of May 08, 2021
Jobs report missed expectations but stocks hit records as weak employment eased Fed rate hike fears. C and I funds reached new highs.
- • Jobs report showed only 266K new jobs vs 1M expected, but stocks rallied to new records
Week of May 01, 2021
S&P 500 crossed 4200 for first time as Fed signals rates staying low. Strong earnings and jobs data boosted C and S funds to record highs.
- • S&P 500 broke 4200 milestone with 90% of companies beating earnings expectations this quarter
April 2021
Week of April 24, 2021
Markets near record highs despite Biden's capital gains tax proposal. Strong earnings and low jobless claims support bullish momentum for TSP equity funds.
- • S&P 500 closed within 1% of record high despite brief selloff on capital gains tax proposal
Week of April 17, 2021
S&P 500 hit fourth straight positive week with record highs amid strong economic data, but technical indicators suggest overbought conditions ahead.
- • S&P 500 achieved record highs 8 of 11 trading days in April on strong retail sales and jobs data
Week of April 10, 2021
S&P 500 hit 4 new records this week, jumping from 4K to 4128. Apple and Amazon surged 8%+ and 6%+ respectively. C and I funds also set new highs.
- • S&P 500 set 4 new records in 5 days, gaining over 100 points since crossing 4K milestone
Week of April 03, 2021
S&P 500 hit record high of 4,019 amid $2.2T infrastructure proposal and strong jobs data. All TSP equity funds gained over 1% Thursday.
- • S&P 500 broke 4,000 barrier reaching new record high on infrastructure spending news
March 2021
Week of March 27, 2021
S&P 500 hit new record Friday despite midweek volatility. Rotation from tech to reopening stocks continues. C and I funds near highs.
- • S&P 500 gained 25 points in final 15 minutes Friday to close at record 3974 after volatile week
Week of March 20, 2021
Markets hit records early week before Fed meeting, but rising bond yields caused pullback. All TSP equity funds remain in 'hold' territory.
- • Markets set records but rising bond yields on Thursday-Friday created selloff pressure
Week of March 13, 2021
Third stimulus package and strong jobs data drove S&P 500 to new records. Market rotation favors small caps and value stocks over big tech names.
- • S&P 500 hit multiple record highs this week, gaining over 2% on stimulus and jobs optimism
Week of March 06, 2021
S&P 500 ended week up despite volatility from rising Treasury yields and Fed concerns. F Fund declined 3% as bond prices fell with rising rates.
- • Rising 10-year Treasury yields to 1.6% pushed NASDAQ into correction territory
February 2021
Week of February 27, 2021
February ended with S&P 500 up 2.6% despite volatile final week driven by rising rates and inflation fears, prompting TSP fund adjustments.
- • 10-year Treasury yield spiked above 1.5%, highest since Feb 2020, triggering market selloff
Week of February 25, 2021
Rising yields triggered market selloff below key support. Emergency TSP reallocation recommended by Feb 26 to preserve March trading flexibility.
- • Bond yields rising caused stock market to break below important technical support levels
Week of February 20, 2021
S&P 500 hit record high above 3,934 in February but faced volatility as 10-year Treasury yields rose to 1.34%, signaling inflation concerns.
- • S&P 500 gained 200+ points in 19 trading days, setting new record high of 3,934 in February
Week of February 13, 2021
Strong week for TSP equity funds with all three (C/S/I) hitting new records. S&P 500 reached 3935, now just 1.65% from 4000 milestone.
- • All TSP equity funds (C/S/I) hit new record highs by week's end in strong uptrend
Week of February 07, 2021
Markets hit new all-time highs with S&P 500 nearing 4,000. Strong earnings and stimulus hopes drive bullish week for TSP C and S funds.
- • Major indices hit record highs after best week since November, reversing January losses
January 2021
Week of January 30, 2021
S&P 500 had first negative month since October amid GameStop frenzy, but strong earnings (82% beat expectations) support long-term outlook for TSP.
- • Market volatility driven by retail investor frenzy, but 82% of companies beat earnings expectations
Week of January 28, 2021
S and I funds underperformed targets, prompting third January rebalancing recommendation. Transfer deadline Friday noon EST for January trade.
- • S and I funds failed to reach their technical threshold levels as previously anticipated
Week of January 28, 2021
S&P 500 dropped 2.57% in worst day since October, but markets recovered half the losses. TSP funds at record highs may trigger rebalancing.
- • S&P 500 had worst single-day drop since October but recovered about half those losses
Week of January 24, 2021
Markets hit record highs on big tech earnings and Treasury nominee comments. C and S funds reached new peaks, with S fund significantly outperforming.
- • S&P 500 hit record highs twice this week, driving C fund to new peaks alongside strong earnings
Week of January 16, 2021
Mixed week with S fund hitting new highs while C and I funds consolidated. Political uncertainty and rising jobless claims weighed on markets Friday.
- • S fund reached new record highs three times this week and posted positive returns
Week of January 09, 2021
Markets extended Santa Claus Rally into January 2021, with S&P 500 hitting new highs. All TSP equity funds (C/S/I) reached record levels.
- • Santa Claus Rally delivered 1% returns and continued with new market highs through January
Week of January 01, 2021
2020 saw historic market volatility with a 34% crash followed by record recovery. TSP funds compressed 7 years of movement into one year.
- • S&P 500 crashed 34% in 5 weeks then recovered to new highs by August - fastest ever cycle
Week of December 24, 2021
S&P 500 hit 68th record high of 2021 at 4725 amid December volatility. TSP analysis suggests shifting from C fund to underperforming S and I funds.