The S&P 500 posted its fourth positive week in a row, with three record closings this week including Friday when it finished at 4185. The week started with the FDA pausing the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine due to blood clot concerns. But the back half of the week was replete with good economic news. On Thursday we had March retail sales of 9.8% which were better than expected due to stimulus checks. The Labor Department also reported that for the week ending 10 April, 576,000 claims were filed for unemployment insurance. This was an important number as it is the lowest level since 14 March 2020, i.e. we’re returning to pre-pandemic levels. To cap it off, on Friday the University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index for April rose to a one year high of 86.5%, more evidence of putting COVID in the rear-view mirror. On the technical side the “bullish trend is our friend”, but we’re getting a little concerned with an overbought condition. In each of the first three months of 2020, we saw the S&P 500 make 5 new highs. In April we’ve had new highs in 8 of the 11 trading days. Additionally, the Bollinger Band Index (BBI) now stands at 97. A reading above 70 concurrent with the markets making new highs are elements of an overbought condition, and as such, we may see a battle next week between the BBI and a strong earnings season. For TSP TIPS, the C and I funds both hit new record highs three times this week, while the S fund is just shy of a new record by a little over one percent. As such, we’ll sit tight for this week with no reallocation.
The S&P 500 posted its fourth positive week in a row, with three record closings this week including Friday when it finished at 4185. The week started with the FDA pausing the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine due to blood clot concerns. But the back half of the week was replete with good economic news. On Thursday we had March retail sales of 9.8% which were better than expected due to stimulus checks. The Labor Department also reported that for the week ending 10 April, 576,000 claims were filed for unemployment insurance. This was an important number as it is the lowest level since 14 March 2020, i.e. we’re returning to pre-pandemic levels. To cap it off, on Friday the University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index for April rose to a one year high of 86.5%, more evidence of putting COVID in the rear-view mirror. On the technical side the “bullish trend is our friend”, but we’re getting a little concerned with an overbought condition. In each of the first three months of 2020, we saw the S&P 500 make 5 new highs. In April we’ve had new highs in 8 of the 11 trading days. Additionally, the Bollinger Band Index (BBI) now stands at 97. A reading above 70 concurrent with the markets making new highs are elements of an overbought condition, and as such, we may see a battle next week between the BBI and a strong earnings season. For TSP TIPS, the C and I funds both hit new record highs three times this week, while the S fund is just shy of a new record by a little over one percent. As such, we’ll sit tight for this week with no reallocation.