TSP Market Summary: Week of May 22, 2021

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • Market forming trading range between 4053-4232 support/resistance levels after mixed week
  • I fund outperformed C fund with 1%+ gain, signaling international stocks may lead domestic
  • Summer season ahead may limit major breakouts, favoring mid-range allocation approach

Coming off the "Big V" of the previous week, the S&P 500 closed this week flat at 4155. Both weeks were very similar, that is until Friday at 1000. Both weeks had inflation fears on Monday through Wednesday. The markets rebounded both Thursdays with calming Fed news/minutes, initial jobless claims again making new post pandemic lows, and continued good earnings reports. However, on this Friday the S&P 500 gapped up 30 points at the open, and I was thinking about two weeks of the Big V. But then the markets lost steam somewhat influenced by steep losses in cryptocurrency, the S&P 500 gave up those 30 points, and the S&P 500 registered its first back-to-back weekly losses since February. From a technical perspective, it looks like we are seeing the formation of a S&P 500 range bound market. Looking at the numbers, the S&P 500 hit a new record high of 4232 on 7 May (resistance level). It then hit a low of 4053 on 12 May (support level). With the S&P 500 closing this week at 4155, we are about at the mid-range between the two. As we head into next Memorial Day weekends unofficial start of summer, the incentive for a breakout of that range might be limited. For TSP TIPS, both the I and C funds are locked at the top of the Performance Ranking ladder. However, in head-to-head competition between the two, the I fund is giving us a buy signal having over a one percent gain the week and just short of a new record by nine cents. As such, well also follow a mid-range approach with our transfer out of the G fund and recommend the following reallocation.

Recommended Allocation (Moderate Profile)

This is our historical recommendation from this date. For current recommendations, subscribe.

G FundF FundC FundS FundI Fund
15% 0% 35% 0% 50%