After a mid-week dip, the S&P 500 had a nice comeback on Friday and finished the week at 4441. A decline in retail sales Tuesday had the markets weary of consumer strength and snapped a five-day winning streak. The market continued to drop Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes included discussions for scaling back or tapering its monthly bond buying program as soon as this year. On the technical side, lets take a deeper look at the S&P 500 over the last 18 months. Starting in February 2020 it had its fastest 30 percent drop in history closing at 2237 on 23 March 2020. On Monday, the S&P 500 notched a record close and an intraday high of 4480, making it the fastest bull market doubling in history. Just this year, the S&P 500 has closed at a record high 49 out of 156 days, the most in the past 70 years. Even with the mid-week dip, the S&P 500 did not pierce its 50 day Moving Average and continues its upward bullish trend. For TSP TIPS, the C fund also hit a new record high on Monday. Last week we mentioned that we were hopeful for an equity fund Record High Trifecta as the three equity funds (C/S/I) usually move in tandem. However, based upon their Performance Rankings (PR), this does not appear to be the usual case. Performance Ranking has a grading system, and the C fund has an A grade while both the S and I funds now have C grades. Like the S&P 500, the C fund did not pierce its 50 day Moving Average support level while the S and I funds did cross below. Finally, the S&P 500 and C fund remain within one percent of all-time highs and just keep plodding upward. As such, we are Letting the trend be our friend and are recommending the following reallocation.
After a mid-week dip, the S&P 500 had a nice comeback on Friday and finished the week at 4441. A decline in retail sales Tuesday had the markets weary of consumer strength and snapped a five-day winning streak. The market continued to drop Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes included discussions for scaling back or tapering its monthly bond buying program as soon as this year. On the technical side, lets take a deeper look at the S&P 500 over the last 18 months. Starting in February 2020 it had its fastest 30 percent drop in history closing at 2237 on 23 March 2020. On Monday, the S&P 500 notched a record close and an intraday high of 4480, making it the fastest bull market doubling in history. Just this year, the S&P 500 has closed at a record high 49 out of 156 days, the most in the past 70 years. Even with the mid-week dip, the S&P 500 did not pierce its 50 day Moving Average and continues its upward bullish trend. For TSP TIPS, the C fund also hit a new record high on Monday. Last week we mentioned that we were hopeful for an equity fund Record High Trifecta as the three equity funds (C/S/I) usually move in tandem. However, based upon their Performance Rankings (PR), this does not appear to be the usual case. Performance Ranking has a grading system, and the C fund has an A grade while both the S and I funds now have C grades. Like the S&P 500, the C fund did not pierce its 50 day Moving Average support level while the S and I funds did cross below. Finally, the S&P 500 and C fund remain within one percent of all-time highs and just keep plodding upward. As such, we are Letting the trend be our friend and are recommending the following reallocation.