The S&P 500 moved up more than one percent on Tuesday, down over one percent on Thursday, but closed Friday at 4545, only two points higher than the previous Friday. Economic news showed 4th Quarter 2021 GDP coming in at a strong 6.9%. February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on a year-to-year basis came in at 6.5%, its steepest rise since February 1982. And on Friday, the unemployment rate dropped to a pandemic low of 3.6% with the economy adding 419,000 jobs in March, the 11th straight month over 400K. For next week we have the most recent Fed minutes coming out on Wednesday. Technically speaking, the first quarter of 2022 was the first losing quarter for the S&P 500 since the first quarter of 2020. Both quarters were marked with volatility as the first quarter of 2020 had 30 days of 1% or more daily moves, while the first quarter of 2022 had 32 days of 1% or more daily moves. And finally, the first quarter also marked yearly bottoms for both years. Building on last weeks write up regarding historical/projected performance after an event, the S&P closed at 2584 on 31 March 2020, and finished the year at a new record high of 3756, up 45% over the last three quarters. On 31 March 2022 the S&P 500 closed at 4530, and another 45% for the rest of the year would put it at 6583 on 31 December 2022. Now thats aggressive and in 2020 we were coming out of a bear market, but right now were only 5.5% short of hitting a new record high and refer to last weeks write up for additional projections. For TSP TIPS its a repeat of last week. The C fund leads the pack maintaining its C Performance Ranking grade, while the S, I and F funds continue to have a F/negative grade. As such, we are recommending no allocation changes this week.
The S&P 500 moved up more than one percent on Tuesday, down over one percent on Thursday, but closed Friday at 4545, only two points higher than the previous Friday. Economic news showed 4th Quarter 2021 GDP coming in at a strong 6.9%. February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on a year-to-year basis came in at 6.5%, its steepest rise since February 1982. And on Friday, the unemployment rate dropped to a pandemic low of 3.6% with the economy adding 419,000 jobs in March, the 11th straight month over 400K. For next week we have the most recent Fed minutes coming out on Wednesday. Technically speaking, the first quarter of 2022 was the first losing quarter for the S&P 500 since the first quarter of 2020. Both quarters were marked with volatility as the first quarter of 2020 had 30 days of 1% or more daily moves, while the first quarter of 2022 had 32 days of 1% or more daily moves. And finally, the first quarter also marked yearly bottoms for both years. Building on last weeks write up regarding historical/projected performance after an event, the S&P closed at 2584 on 31 March 2020, and finished the year at a new record high of 3756, up 45% over the last three quarters. On 31 March 2022 the S&P 500 closed at 4530, and another 45% for the rest of the year would put it at 6583 on 31 December 2022. Now thats aggressive and in 2020 we were coming out of a bear market, but right now were only 5.5% short of hitting a new record high and refer to last weeks write up for additional projections. For TSP TIPS its a repeat of last week. The C fund leads the pack maintaining its C Performance Ranking grade, while the S, I and F funds continue to have a F/negative grade. As such, we are recommending no allocation changes this week.