TSP Market Summary: Week of July 09, 2022

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • Fed likely to raise rates 75 basis points at July meeting based on released minutes
  • S&P 500 forming technical base around 3900 level over past month of trading
  • Busy week ahead with inflation data and earnings season starting next week

Carrying over from last Friday, the S&P 500 had a string of four positive days until this Friday, when it closed down slightly at 3899. Based on the Fed minutes which were released on Wednesday, the markets are coming to the consensus that the Fed will most likely raise interest rates by 75 basis points at their next meeting on 26/27 July. On Friday, the markets also absorbed a higher-than-expected payroll numbers and low unemployment rate, considering it a positive in that it will allow the Fed to fight off inflation with future rate hikes. From a technical perspective, the S&P seems to have been building a base over the past four weeks. We had two up weeks, two down, and the S&P 500 is essentially where it was on Friday, 10 June when it closed at 3900. Next week will be a busy one with inflation data (CPI/PPI), retail sales and consumer sentiment numbers. It will also be the start of earnings season which will give us insight into the overall state of the economy. For TSP TIPS, that base the S&P 500 has formed over the past month recorded an intraday high of 3945.86 on 28 June. Should the S&P 500 break above that level stand by for a mid-week alert.