TSP Market Summary: Week of August 13, 2022

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • Inflation cooled to 8.5% in July, down from 9.1% peak, sparking strong market rally
  • All TSP equity funds (C, S, I) now showing positive performance with S and C funds leading
  • S&P 500 hit key 50% recovery level - historically bullish signal for continued gains

The S&P 500 closed at 4280 on Friday, making it four straight up weeks. Before the opening bell on Wednesday, the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 8.5%, down from the over 40-year high of 9.1% hit in June. As a result, the S&P 500 had a strong bullish day gaining over 2%. Thursdays Producer Price Index (PPI) also reversed to the downside. Those two numbers then lifted the S&P 500 above two key technical levels. First, the S&P 500 broke above the 2 June 4177 resistance level. And second, the S&P 500 crossed the significant 50% retracement level. On 3 Jan of this year, the S&P 500 set a new record high of 4796. The subsequent low was 3666 on 16 June. The halfway point between the two was 4231, and the S&P 500 closed above that on Friday. In data going back to 1950, the S&P has never returned to its low after closing above a 50% retracement. Next week the housing numbers will drive the markets. For TSP TIPS, all three equity funds (C, S, I) now have positive Performance Rankings with the S and C funds in the top two positions respectively. As such, we are recommending the following reallocation.

Recommended Allocation (Moderate Profile)

This is our historical recommendation from this date. For current recommendations, subscribe.

G FundF FundC FundS FundI Fund
0% 0% 40% 60% 0%