After a tough first half of the week, the markets rallied in the second half with the S&P 500 closing at 4071. On Monday the markets sold off in reaction to the weekend China protests over its zero-Covid policy. Tuesday was flat as a lot of eyes were on the US/Iran World Cup match, but everything changed Wednesday afternoon when Fed Chair Powell made comments regarding a possible slowdown in interest rate hikes. In the last two hours of trading, the S&P 500 gained over three percent. Wednesday also marked the end of a bullish November with the major market indices all finishing higher. For the S&P 500 it marked back-to-back monthly gains for the first time since August 2021. Before Thursdays open and seeming to support Powells remarks, the October Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Inflation) Index came in at 0.2%, less than the expected 0.3%. On Friday the unemployment report came in hotter than expected which resulted in a sell off at the open, but the markets fought back throughout the day and finished flat on the day but up for the week, marking the first time the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ notched back-to-back weekly gains since October. From the technical side, those back-to-back weekly and monthly wins and the S&P 500 crossing above its 200 day Moving Average (MA) illustrate the broad advance of recent gains. According to Jeff Hirsch at The Stock Trader's Almanac, November to January is the year's best consecutive three-month span and this year, that period also falls within the "sweet spot" of the four-year presidential cycle, from the fourth quarter of the midterm year through the second quarter of the pre-election year. For next week, we have the PPI numbers on Friday followed by the Fed meeting on the 13/14 December. For TSP TIPS, all three equity funds (C/S/I) made new post September highs and all now have positive Performance Rankings. Additionally, the F fund has put together a string of four consecutive positive weeks and finished Friday at the high point of that string. As such, we recommend no changes to our current investment mix.
After a tough first half of the week, the markets rallied in the second half with the S&P 500 closing at 4071. On Monday the markets sold off in reaction to the weekend China protests over its zero-Covid policy. Tuesday was flat as a lot of eyes were on the US/Iran World Cup match, but everything changed Wednesday afternoon when Fed Chair Powell made comments regarding a possible slowdown in interest rate hikes. In the last two hours of trading, the S&P 500 gained over three percent. Wednesday also marked the end of a bullish November with the major market indices all finishing higher. For the S&P 500 it marked back-to-back monthly gains for the first time since August 2021. Before Thursdays open and seeming to support Powells remarks, the October Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Inflation) Index came in at 0.2%, less than the expected 0.3%. On Friday the unemployment report came in hotter than expected which resulted in a sell off at the open, but the markets fought back throughout the day and finished flat on the day but up for the week, marking the first time the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ notched back-to-back weekly gains since October. From the technical side, those back-to-back weekly and monthly wins and the S&P 500 crossing above its 200 day Moving Average (MA) illustrate the broad advance of recent gains. According to Jeff Hirsch at The Stock Trader's Almanac, November to January is the year's best consecutive three-month span and this year, that period also falls within the "sweet spot" of the four-year presidential cycle, from the fourth quarter of the midterm year through the second quarter of the pre-election year. For next week, we have the PPI numbers on Friday followed by the Fed meeting on the 13/14 December. For TSP TIPS, all three equity funds (C/S/I) made new post September highs and all now have positive Performance Rankings. Additionally, the F fund has put together a string of four consecutive positive weeks and finished Friday at the high point of that string. As such, we recommend no changes to our current investment mix.