Between Christmas and New Years Day the markets usually have light volume, but volatility was still prevalent as the S&P 500 closed down for the week at 3839. This weeks major economic news came on Wednesday with Novembers pending home sales decreasing 37.8% on an annual basis, the 18th straight month of declines and the biggest since November 2021. As such we had a corresponding S&P500 daily drop of over one percent, only to see it rebound over one percent on Thursday. As discussed last week, the Santa Claus rally started at 23 Decembers open with the S&P 500 at 3815. At Fridays close we hovered just above that, but still have two more trading days in it. With the coming new year, we also have the First Five Days indicator. When stocks finish the first five days higher, the S&P 500 has been positive more than 80% of the time at year-end with an average gain of about 13%. In 2019 (the year after the last Mid-Term elections), the S&P 500 gained 2.7% in the first five trading days, ending the year 28.9% higher. Lastly, 2022 was unique in that the first trading day in January was also the S&P 500s high point of the year. Wouldnt it be nice to see just the opposite this year, with the S&P 500s low point for 2023 being 3 January. For TSP TIPS, we just reallocated on Thursday so we are good going into 2023. Lastly, well be emailing a 2022 market summary in the next few days and we wish everyone a very Happy New Year!!
Between Christmas and New Years Day the markets usually have light volume, but volatility was still prevalent as the S&P 500 closed down for the week at 3839. This weeks major economic news came on Wednesday with Novembers pending home sales decreasing 37.8% on an annual basis, the 18th straight month of declines and the biggest since November 2021. As such we had a corresponding S&P500 daily drop of over one percent, only to see it rebound over one percent on Thursday. As discussed last week, the Santa Claus rally started at 23 Decembers open with the S&P 500 at 3815. At Fridays close we hovered just above that, but still have two more trading days in it. With the coming new year, we also have the First Five Days indicator. When stocks finish the first five days higher, the S&P 500 has been positive more than 80% of the time at year-end with an average gain of about 13%. In 2019 (the year after the last Mid-Term elections), the S&P 500 gained 2.7% in the first five trading days, ending the year 28.9% higher. Lastly, 2022 was unique in that the first trading day in January was also the S&P 500s high point of the year. Wouldnt it be nice to see just the opposite this year, with the S&P 500s low point for 2023 being 3 January. For TSP TIPS, we just reallocated on Thursday so we are good going into 2023. Lastly, well be emailing a 2022 market summary in the next few days and we wish everyone a very Happy New Year!!