TSP Market Summary: 2023
59 weekly market commentaries from 2023.
December 2023
Week of December 30, 2023
S&P 500 extends 9-week win streak, nearing all-time highs. TSP funds hit new highs with S fund leading 25% gains concentrated in final two months.
- • S&P 500 achieved 9-week winning streak, its best since 2004, with TSP C fund hitting new highs
Week of December 23, 2023
S&P 500 extends winning streak to 8 weeks, nearing record highs. All TSP equity funds hit 52-week highs with strong Santa Claus Rally potential ahead.
- • S&P 500 just 0.88% away from all-time record high, supported by improving inflation data
Week of December 16, 2023
S&P 500 hit seven straight up weeks after Fed Chair Powell signaled potential rate cuts in 2024, driving all TSP funds to new yearly highs.
- • Fed signals possible rate cuts in 2024, boosting markets across all major indices
Week of December 09, 2023
S&P 500 hits new highs for sixth straight week as jobs data beats expectations and inflation outlook improves, benefiting TSP C fund performance.
- • S&P 500 achieved six consecutive weekly gains, reaching new yearly highs at 4604
Week of December 02, 2023
S&P 500 extended winning streak to five weeks on cooling inflation data. TSP C fund hit new 2023 high with S and I funds close behind.
- • PCE inflation cooled to 3.5%, sparking hopes Fed is done raising rates
November 2023
Week of November 25, 2023
S&P 500 gained 1% in holiday week, marking fourth straight weekly gain. C fund nears yearly highs while technical indicators improve across funds.
- • S&P 500 achieved longest winning streak since June with four consecutive weekly gains
Week of November 25, 2023
S&P 500 gained 1% for its 4th straight weekly win, approaching yearly highs. C Fund nears record levels while S, I, F funds show technical strength.
- • S&P 500 extends winning streak to 4 weeks, breaking resistance and eyeing July highs
Week of November 18, 2023
S&P 500 gained for third straight week on better-than-expected inflation data. All TSP funds now show positive rankings with F fund benefiting from falling yields.
- • October inflation came in lower than expected, boosting hopes Fed may pause rate hikes
Week of November 11, 2023
S&P 500 broke key resistance at 4393 after 8-day winning streak was halted by Fed concerns, prompting TSP equity allocation increase recommendation.
- • S&P 500 achieved longest winning streak since 2021 before Fed rate concerns caused Thursday selloff
Week of November 04, 2023
S&P 500 had best week of year with five straight up days, rising above key technical levels as cooler jobs data suggests Fed rate hikes may have peaked.
- • S&P 500 posted best week of 2023 with daily gains over 1% three times this week
October 2023
Week of October 28, 2023
S&P 500 fell over 2% for second straight week amid disappointing earnings and Mid-East tensions. TSP funds show weak technical signals ahead of Fed decision.
- • S&P 500 dropped 133 points below its 200-day average, signaling continued market weakness
Week of October 21, 2023
S&P 500 fell 2.4% as 10-year Treasury yields hit 5% for first time in 16 years. TSP commentary recommends increasing G fund allocation amid volatility.
- • S&P 500 closed below 200-day average for first time since March as Treasury yields surged
Week of October 14, 2023
S&P 500 posted second consecutive weekly gain despite daily volatility. Mixed economic data and geopolitical tensions kept markets cautious.
- • S&P 500 gained 0.5% for the week despite daily swings around inflation data and geopolitics
Week of October 07, 2023
S&P 500 ended 4-week losing streak despite political chaos and rising rates hitting 16-year highs. Strong jobs data sparked volatility but markets recovered.
- • 10-year Treasury yields hit 4.7%, highest since 2007, pressuring bond values (F Fund)
September 2023
Week of September 30, 2023
S&P 500 fell for September amid inflation, rate, and shutdown concerns. TSP advisors staying cautious with cash positions as markets test support levels.
- • Markets declined across all timeframes due to inflation, rising rates, and shutdown fears
Week of September 23, 2023
S&P 500 hits third straight down week after Fed signals higher rates longer. Bond yields surge to multi-year highs as technical indicators turn bearish.
- • Fed Chair Powell's hawkish stance triggered 1%+ daily drops in stocks mid-week
Week of September 16, 2023
S&P 500 down 0.16% for second straight week amid mixed inflation data. Markets consolidating ahead of Fed meeting with no TSP changes recommended.
- • S&P 500 fell slightly for second week but shows technical consolidation pattern
Week of September 09, 2023
S&P 500 ended two-week winning streak amid oil price concerns, but weekly lows show upward trend. Inflation data and Fed meeting ahead.
- • S&P 500 fell this week but weekly lows have risen for four straight weeks, showing resilience
Week of September 03, 2023
S&P 500 closed August strong at 4515 with two consecutive up weeks. Markets rallied on signs Fed rate hikes are cooling inflation effectively.
- • Markets rose on weaker consumer confidence and job data, signaling Fed rate hikes are working
August 2023
Week of August 26, 2023
S&P 500 ended volatile week higher despite Fed concerns and mortgage rate peaks. Technical signals turned bearish for C, S, and I funds.
- • S&P 500 broke 3-week losing streak but showed extreme volatility during Fed Chair Powell's speech
Week of August 19, 2023
S&P 500 fell for third straight week amid Fed inflation concerns and rising yields. C and S funds dropped below key technical levels.
- • Markets declined despite strong earnings as Fed minutes showed continued inflation worries
Week of August 12, 2023
S&P 500 fell for second week to August lows amid mixed inflation data. Markets consolidating in range with low volatility expected until September Fed meeting.
- • S&P 500 hit August low of 4464 despite softer-than-expected CPI inflation data
Week of August 05, 2023
S&P 500 fell after Fitch downgraded US credit rating to AA+. Technical signals turned negative. TSP models increasing G fund allocation amid volatility.
- • Fitch downgraded US credit rating for second time ever, causing market selloff and volatility
July 2023
Week of July 29, 2023
S&P 500 posted third straight weekly gain despite Fed rate hike. Meta earnings boosted markets while GDP beat expectations at 2.4%.
- • S&P 500 achieved three consecutive weekly gains, reaching 4582 with low daily volatility
Week of July 22, 2023
S&P 500 gained for second week reaching 4536, with broadening rally despite Tesla/Netflix earnings disappointments. C and S funds hit new highs.
- • Market rally broadening beyond mega-cap stocks, with Dow up 10 straight days
Week of July 22, 2023
S&P 500 gained for second straight week despite Tesla/Netflix earnings disappointments. Market shows broad strength with low volatility ahead of Fed meeting.
- • S&P 500 posted back-to-back weekly gains with unusually low volatility in July
Week of July 15, 2023
S&P 500 hit new 52-week highs as inflation cooled to 3% and producer prices barely rose. All three TSP equity funds improved their ratings.
- • Inflation dropped to 3% (lowest since March) while producer prices rose just 0.1%
Week of July 08, 2023
S&P 500 fell 1% in holiday week despite new highs, as mixed jobs data created volatility. TSP C fund hit 52-week high with no allocation changes recommended.
- • Markets hit new highs early week but mixed jobs reports caused late-week selloff
Week of July 01, 2023
S&P 500 posts best first half since 2019, reaching new 2023 highs on strong economic data. TSP introduces new Conservative/Moderate/Aggressive models.
- • Markets hit 2023 highs with strong jobs data and cooling inflation boosting investor confidence
June 2023
Week of June 29, 2023
TSP commentary for June 29, 2023 recommends no investment changes for Friday, with full weekly market analysis coming Saturday.
- • No TSP fund rebalancing recommended for Friday's trading session
Week of June 24, 2023
S&P 500 ended five-week winning streak with modest decline. Fed signals 1-2 more rate hikes at slower pace. TSP C and S funds maintain top rankings.
- • S&P 500 broke five-week winning streak with small losses despite Fed's measured rate hike plans
Week of June 17, 2023
S&P 500 had best week since March with 5 straight gains after cooling inflation data and Fed pause. TSP C and S funds hit new highs.
- • S&P 500 surged on cooler inflation data and Fed's first rate pause in 10 meetings
Week of June 10, 2023
S&P 500 extends winning streak to 4 weeks, reaching 4298. C Fund hits new 52-week highs while both C and S Funds show bullish technical signals.
- • S&P 500 gained for fourth straight week with minimal volatility, closing at 4298
Week of June 03, 2023
S&P 500 hit new 2023 high after debt ceiling resolution and strong jobs data. C fund leads TSP performance while S fund shows technical recovery.
- • Markets surged 3% after debt ceiling deal passed and strong May jobs report showed 339K new jobs
May 2023
Week of May 28, 2023
S&P 500 hit new 2023 high despite debt ceiling fears, driven by AI surge led by Nvidia. C fund tops performance rankings while S fund shows revival.
- • Nvidia's AI earnings sparked massive tech rally, lifting S&P 500 to new yearly high of 4205
Week of May 20, 2023
S&P 500 broke above 4200 with bullish signals emerging, while debt ceiling talks and Fed comments drove volatility. TSP C fund made new YTD high.
- • S&P 500 broke 6-week streak with strong upward move, hitting new 2023 high of 4212
Week of May 13, 2023
Markets showed low volatility for sixth straight week as inflation data improved, but debt ceiling concerns and consumer sentiment pose risks ahead.
- • Inflation fell to 4.9% in April, lowest since 2021, providing positive market momentum
Week of May 06, 2023
Markets rebounded Friday on strong jobs data after regional banking stress. Apple earnings beat expectations. I and C funds top performers for TSP.
- • Regional banking crisis spread but markets recovered on strong April jobs report (253k jobs added)
April 2023
Week of April 29, 2023
S&P 500 gained amid volatility from strong Meta/Microsoft earnings. Low volatility signals may indicate potential stair-step market like 2021.
- • S&P 500 had volatile week but closed higher on strong MegaCap earnings from Meta and Microsoft
Week of April 22, 2023
S&P 500 flat for the week despite five straight weeks of higher highs. Low volatility may signal breakout ahead. TSP C and I funds remain bullish.
- • S&P 500 consolidating in low volatility pattern, similar to mid-March before major breakout
Week of April 16, 2023
S&P 500 rose to 4,137 as March inflation data showed ninth consecutive monthly decline. Strong technical signals support increased equity allocation.
- • Inflation cooled to 5.0% in March, sparking market volatility but ultimately driving gains
Week of April 08, 2023
S&P 500 stayed flat in holiday-shortened week. March jobs data met expectations with unemployment at 3.5%. TSP guidance unchanged pending CPI data.
- • Markets showed minimal volatility with S&P 500 essentially flat for the week
Week of April 01, 2023
S&P 500 hit 4107 with strong weekly gains as inflation cooled to 4.6%. I and C funds lead TSP recommendations with rising F fund allocation.
- • Core inflation dropped to 4.6%, lowest in 15 months, boosting hopes for fewer Fed rate hikes
March 2023
Week of March 26, 2023
S&P 500 had volatile week ending at 3,971 after Fed raised rates 25 basis points. Powell's remarks caused 100-point drop. No TSP changes recommended.
- • Fed raised rates 25 basis points, causing major market volatility and 100-point S&P drop
Week of March 18, 2023
Markets gained despite banking volatility. Tech rallied while energy declined. Fed decision looms as technical indicators weaken for TSP funds.
- • S&P 500 up despite bank stress (First Republic -72%, Credit Suisse -24%)
Week of March 11, 2023
S&P 500 fell below key support levels amid Fed rate concerns and Silicon Valley Bank failure, impacting C and S funds while I fund showed resilience.
- • S&P 500 dropped below 200-day moving average amid fears of higher interest rates for longer
Week of March 05, 2023
S&P 500 rebounded after testing key support levels as 10-year Treasury yields retreated from 4%. S and I funds show bullish signals while C fund lags.
- • S&P 500 bounced off 200-day moving average support, gaining 1.6% Friday for best day since January
Week of March 04, 2023
S&P 500 rebounded after hitting 200-day moving average support as 10-year Treasury yields pulled back from 4%. S and I funds show bullish signals.
- • Markets reversed higher after successfully testing key 200-day moving average support level
February 2023
Week of February 25, 2023
Markets fell in holiday-shortened week on earnings concerns and inflation data. S&P 500 dropped below key technical level, prompting TSP allocation changes.
- • S&P 500 had major daily losses over 1% twice, driven by weak earnings and inflation concerns
Week of February 18, 2023
S&P 500 fell for second week as strong economic data raised Fed rate concerns. TSP funds rotating during market consolidation phase.
- • Strong CPI, retail sales, and jobs data sparked fears Fed will keep rates higher longer
Week of February 11, 2023
S&P 500 consolidated this week amid strong earnings. All TSP equity funds show bullish technical signals. No allocation changes recommended.
- • Markets showing steady upward trend with each week's low higher than the previous week
Week of February 11, 2023
S&P 500 consolidates as earnings beat expectations. Consumer sentiment hits 13-month high. All TSP equity funds show positive technical signals.
- • Markets consolidating with 70% of S&P companies beating earnings expectations
Week of February 04, 2023
S&P 500 hit Golden Cross signal after volatile week driven by Fed comments and jobs data. C and I funds bullish with S fund catching up.
- • S&P 500 achieved Golden Cross technical signal, historically indicating 16.73% average gains
January 2023
Week of January 28, 2023
Markets rose on strong Q4 GDP (2.9%) and earnings. S&P 500 hit 2023 highs. Fed decision Wednesday key. TSP maintains bullish equity allocation.
- • Q4 GDP at 2.9% beat expectations with 69% of companies showing positive earnings surprises
Week of January 28, 2023
Markets rallied on strong Q4 GDP growth of 2.9% and positive earnings surprises. TSP equity funds benefit from bullish momentum ahead of Fed decision.
- • Q4 GDP beat expectations at 2.9%, showing economic resilience after mid-2022 contraction
Week of January 21, 2023
S&P 500 had first losing week of 2023 but recovered Friday. Mixed economic data showed cooling inflation but recession fears persist.
- • S&P 500 broke above key 200-day moving average resistance level for first time since 2022
Week of January 14, 2023
S&P 500 gained for second week, hitting bullish indicators but stalling at 4000 resistance. CPI met expectations as earnings season begins.
- • S&P 500 shows bullish momentum with Santa Claus Rally and positive First Five Days indicator
Week of January 07, 2023
Markets ended flat for the week after volatile trading. Strong jobs data and cooling wages sparked Friday rally, boosting C Fund above key levels.
- • C Fund closed above 20-day average for first time since mid-December - bullish technical sign
Week of December 30, 2023
S&P 500 extended its winning streak to 9 weeks, approaching record highs. Strong December rally broadened to small-caps, with S fund gaining 25% for 2023.