The S&P 500 has not seen an environment like this in quite a while as it closed up for the week at 4036. All five days saw moves of over 1% as the markets digested the disinflationary news from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday and an unexpected strong employment report on Friday. From a technical perspective we saw the S&P 500 have a Golden Cross where its 50 day Moving Average (MA) crossed above its 200 day MA. This reverses the 15 March 2022 Death Cross where the 50 day MA closed below its 200 day MA. Since 1970 there has been 26 Cross cycles with 21 wins, 5 losses, and an average gain of 16.73%. That would put the S&P 500 at 4828, thereby surpassing the S&P 500 record closing high of 4796 on 3 January 2022. Additionally, the S&P 500 scored a trifecta with the January Barometer having a positive return for January which complemented the bullish Santa Claus Rally and First Five Days of January signals. Overall, these bullish moves might increase the demand for stocks as the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) kicks in, resulting in continued upward pressure. For TSP TIPS, both the C and I funds are in Golden Cross territory and the S fund will likely join them at the beginning of next week. That said, the S fund is quickly closing the Performance Ranking gap with the I fund. As such, we are recommending the following investment mix.
The S&P 500 has not seen an environment like this in quite a while as it closed up for the week at 4036. All five days saw moves of over 1% as the markets digested the disinflationary news from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday and an unexpected strong employment report on Friday. From a technical perspective we saw the S&P 500 have a Golden Cross where its 50 day Moving Average (MA) crossed above its 200 day MA. This reverses the 15 March 2022 Death Cross where the 50 day MA closed below its 200 day MA. Since 1970 there has been 26 Cross cycles with 21 wins, 5 losses, and an average gain of 16.73%. That would put the S&P 500 at 4828, thereby surpassing the S&P 500 record closing high of 4796 on 3 January 2022. Additionally, the S&P 500 scored a trifecta with the January Barometer having a positive return for January which complemented the bullish Santa Claus Rally and First Five Days of January signals. Overall, these bullish moves might increase the demand for stocks as the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) kicks in, resulting in continued upward pressure. For TSP TIPS, both the C and I funds are in Golden Cross territory and the S fund will likely join them at the beginning of next week. That said, the S fund is quickly closing the Performance Ranking gap with the I fund. As such, we are recommending the following investment mix.