TSP Market Summary: Week of February 25, 2023

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • S&P 500 had major daily losses over 1% twice, driven by weak earnings and inflation concerns
  • C and I funds dropped below 50-day moving averages, triggering defensive allocation shift
  • Markets found support at 200-day MA but face continued Fed rate hike pressure ahead

It was a holiday shortened barbell week with daily losses of over 1% on both Tuesday and Friday, and at the closing bell the S&P 500 stood at 3,974. On Tuesday the S&P 500 gapped open to the downside as Home Depot and Walmart reported weaker earnings guidance, which turned into a systemic down day for the markets. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve minutes were released showing that the FOMC will continue to fight inflation with rate hikes, thereby causing the 10 year Treasury Note to a nearly 4% yield. At Thursdays open AI was the big news with Nvidia shares rallying more than 13% on better-than-expected earnings and revenue, giving the S&P 500 its only up day in the week. Before Fridays open the core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.6% in January and 4.7% from the prior year, higher than expectations which resulted in another gap open to the downside. At mid-morning the sales of new single family houses data showed a jump of 7.2% month-over-month, its highest reading since last March, and the markets started to claw their way back. From a technical perspective the S&P 500 has been two steps forward in January and one step backward in February, and is now right about the mid-point between 2023s high and low. This week it dropped below its 50 day Moving Average (MA) but found support at its 200 day MA level of 3,940. For TSP TIPS, both the C/S&P 500 and I funds dropped below their 50 day MAs on Friday and as such, we are recommending the following investment mix.

Recommended Allocation (Moderate Profile)

This is our historical recommendation from this date. For current recommendations, subscribe.

G FundF FundC FundS FundI Fund
40% 0% 20% 30% 10%