The S&P 500 closed at 4107 on Friday, up for the day, week, month, and quarter. The week started flat with the S&P 500 up 0.16% on Monday, and down the same amount on Tuesday. However, the rest of the week was bullish as we had two daily gains of over 1%. Although Fridays University of Michigan consumer sentiment number dropped for the first time since November, this was far overshadowed by the Core Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) price index. As the Feds preferred gauge to measure inflation, Februarys annual rate fell to 4.6%, the least in the last 15 months. This raised hopes the Fed could limit future rate hikes and the markets took off with the S&P 500 gaining over 1% and finishing the day at its high for the week. That said, we have also seen the 10 year Treasury yield fall from its most recent 2 March high of 4.09% to its current level of 3.49%. From a technical perspective, bullish indicators had the S&P 500 breaking above the 6 March resistance level of 4078 on Friday while also crossing above its 50 day Moving Average (MA). Next week the markets will be closed on Good Friday, but Februarys unemployment numbers will be reported. As such, we may see some volatility on Monday 10 April. For TSP TIPS, both the I and C funds have the top two composite scores, increasing this week to 75 (out of 100). However, the Performance Ranking (PR) of the I fund was slightly better than the C fund, resulting in a higher allocation to the I fund. With interest rates falling, the F bond fund now stands at a YTD high so that allocation will also increase. Finally, youll also see a slight change as we will now be utilizing 1% allocation increments instead of 5%. As such, we are recommending the following new investment mix as we start the quarter.
The S&P 500 closed at 4107 on Friday, up for the day, week, month, and quarter. The week started flat with the S&P 500 up 0.16% on Monday, and down the same amount on Tuesday. However, the rest of the week was bullish as we had two daily gains of over 1%. Although Fridays University of Michigan consumer sentiment number dropped for the first time since November, this was far overshadowed by the Core Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) price index. As the Feds preferred gauge to measure inflation, Februarys annual rate fell to 4.6%, the least in the last 15 months. This raised hopes the Fed could limit future rate hikes and the markets took off with the S&P 500 gaining over 1% and finishing the day at its high for the week. That said, we have also seen the 10 year Treasury yield fall from its most recent 2 March high of 4.09% to its current level of 3.49%. From a technical perspective, bullish indicators had the S&P 500 breaking above the 6 March resistance level of 4078 on Friday while also crossing above its 50 day Moving Average (MA). Next week the markets will be closed on Good Friday, but Februarys unemployment numbers will be reported. As such, we may see some volatility on Monday 10 April. For TSP TIPS, both the I and C funds have the top two composite scores, increasing this week to 75 (out of 100). However, the Performance Ranking (PR) of the I fund was slightly better than the C fund, resulting in a higher allocation to the I fund. With interest rates falling, the F bond fund now stands at a YTD high so that allocation will also increase. Finally, youll also see a slight change as we will now be utilizing 1% allocation increments instead of 5%. As such, we are recommending the following new investment mix as we start the quarter.