Breaking a streak of six straight weeks with no daily moves of more than one percent, the SP 500 broke that streak on Wednesday with an upward move that took it above the 4200 level over the next two days before closing Friday at 4191. As noted last week, debt ceiling talks dominated the headlines with the on/off switch toggling between deal or no deal. On Friday we also had Fed Chair Powell saying that interest rates may not have to rise as much as previously thought. However, in the background there were some bullish technical signals that have surfaced this week. Specifically, the S&P 500 had a bullish weekly two bar reversal to the upside when it broke above the 4186 resistance level. It also made a new Year To Date (YTD) intraday high of 4212, breaking above the 2 February intraday high of 4195. Another positive was that the S&P 500 has clawed its way above the 4155 level, the mid-point between the 3 January 2022 record intraday high of 4818 and subsequent intraday low of 3491 on 13 October 2022. Were now seven months removed from that low and have climbed a recession and inflation wall of worry. While yes, we do have those ongoing debt ceiling talks, the trend has been bullish with the S&P 500s price above its 20 day Moving Average (MA), which is above its 50 MA, which is above its 200 MA. For next week we have the FOMC minutes on Wednesday followed by Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index on Friday. For TSP TIPS, the above points that emerged this week also pertain to the C fund with it making a new YTD high on Thursday. Also, while the I fund did not make a new YTD high this week, its Performance Ranking (PR) is still above the C fund PR. These emergent conditions have increased fund composite scores and as such, we recommend a more bullish investment mix.
Breaking a streak of six straight weeks with no daily moves of more than one percent, the SP 500 broke that streak on Wednesday with an upward move that took it above the 4200 level over the next two days before closing Friday at 4191. As noted last week, debt ceiling talks dominated the headlines with the on/off switch toggling between deal or no deal. On Friday we also had Fed Chair Powell saying that interest rates may not have to rise as much as previously thought. However, in the background there were some bullish technical signals that have surfaced this week. Specifically, the S&P 500 had a bullish weekly two bar reversal to the upside when it broke above the 4186 resistance level. It also made a new Year To Date (YTD) intraday high of 4212, breaking above the 2 February intraday high of 4195. Another positive was that the S&P 500 has clawed its way above the 4155 level, the mid-point between the 3 January 2022 record intraday high of 4818 and subsequent intraday low of 3491 on 13 October 2022. Were now seven months removed from that low and have climbed a recession and inflation wall of worry. While yes, we do have those ongoing debt ceiling talks, the trend has been bullish with the S&P 500s price above its 20 day Moving Average (MA), which is above its 50 MA, which is above its 200 MA. For next week we have the FOMC minutes on Wednesday followed by Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index on Friday. For TSP TIPS, the above points that emerged this week also pertain to the C fund with it making a new YTD high on Thursday. Also, while the I fund did not make a new YTD high this week, its Performance Ranking (PR) is still above the C fund PR. These emergent conditions have increased fund composite scores and as such, we recommend a more bullish investment mix.