The SP 500 closed the week at 4409, having its best week since March and making it five in a row, the best since November 2021. On Monday an afternoon surge brought the S&P 500 to a close above that 4300 psychological level. Before Tuesdays open, Mays Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 0.1%, bringing the annual level down to 4% and the lowest since March 2021. And again before Wednesdays open, Mays Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased 0.3% while the annual basis came in at 1.1%, the least since December 2020. Then that afternoon, after raising interest rates on each of its last ten meetings, the Fed held rates steady but did signal they were prepared to raise them again if needed. With all this news the S&P 500 was flat on Wednesday, but overnight investors caught their breath. On Thursday the bulls returned with a daily gain of over one percent before closing at 4425, its highest level since April 2022. Friday saw the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers come in at a higher than expected 63.9, but after six straight positive days, the S&P 500 sold off slightly but still held above that 4400 level. From a technical perspective, last week we mentioned that the S&P 500 was tracking towards a year end close of 4796. So lets look at this another way. Some technicians say an "official" bull market begins once the S&P 500 bounces up 20% from its bear market closing low. Based on that definition, the SP 500 achieved that when it closed at 4294 on 8 June. Since 1956, this has happened 13 times, and 10 times the S&P 500 was higher over the following six months. With average and median returns of 10.0% and 12.2% respectively, that six months later range would be between 4723 and 4818. So yes, were in the ballpark, but no one can predict the future. Next week is holiday shortened again, economic news is very light, and Fed Chair Powell will provide his semi-annual monetary policy report to the U.S. Senate. And on a final note, heres something that doesnt happen every day. After more than three decades (3 August 1990 to be exact), the Nikkei Japan index (their S&P 500) finally crossed back above 30,000 this week. Not too good if youre a buy and hold investor. For TSP TIPS, the C fund made new 52 week highs every day this week except for Friday. The I fund has regained some strength and also made new 52 week highs on Wednesday and Thursday. However, the C and S funds have positive one month returns while the I fund does not, keeping C and S at the top of the Performance Ranking leaderboard. As such, we recommend no changes to our current investment mix.
The SP 500 closed the week at 4409, having its best week since March and making it five in a row, the best since November 2021. On Monday an afternoon surge brought the S&P 500 to a close above that 4300 psychological level. Before Tuesdays open, Mays Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 0.1%, bringing the annual level down to 4% and the lowest since March 2021. And again before Wednesdays open, Mays Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased 0.3% while the annual basis came in at 1.1%, the least since December 2020. Then that afternoon, after raising interest rates on each of its last ten meetings, the Fed held rates steady but did signal they were prepared to raise them again if needed. With all this news the S&P 500 was flat on Wednesday, but overnight investors caught their breath. On Thursday the bulls returned with a daily gain of over one percent before closing at 4425, its highest level since April 2022. Friday saw the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers come in at a higher than expected 63.9, but after six straight positive days, the S&P 500 sold off slightly but still held above that 4400 level. From a technical perspective, last week we mentioned that the S&P 500 was tracking towards a year end close of 4796. So lets look at this another way. Some technicians say an "official" bull market begins once the S&P 500 bounces up 20% from its bear market closing low. Based on that definition, the SP 500 achieved that when it closed at 4294 on 8 June. Since 1956, this has happened 13 times, and 10 times the S&P 500 was higher over the following six months. With average and median returns of 10.0% and 12.2% respectively, that six months later range would be between 4723 and 4818. So yes, were in the ballpark, but no one can predict the future. Next week is holiday shortened again, economic news is very light, and Fed Chair Powell will provide his semi-annual monetary policy report to the U.S. Senate. And on a final note, heres something that doesnt happen every day. After more than three decades (3 August 1990 to be exact), the Nikkei Japan index (their S&P 500) finally crossed back above 30,000 this week. Not too good if youre a buy and hold investor. For TSP TIPS, the C fund made new 52 week highs every day this week except for Friday. The I fund has regained some strength and also made new 52 week highs on Wednesday and Thursday. However, the C and S funds have positive one month returns while the I fund does not, keeping C and S at the top of the Performance Ranking leaderboard. As such, we recommend no changes to our current investment mix.