TSP Market Summary: Week of June 24, 2023

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • S&P 500 broke five-week winning streak with small losses despite Fed's measured rate hike plans
  • TSP C and S funds still lead performance rankings; no allocation changes recommended this week
  • Light economic calendar suggests market consolidation ahead; potential reallocation by month-end

Ending five consecutive weeks of gains, the SP 500 closed the week down at 4348 on Friday. In a holiday shortened week with not much on the economic front, the S&P 500 was down three of the four days with no daily moves of greater than one percent. Thursday was the only up day, with the markets reacting to Fed Chair Powell reiterating comments to lawmakers that the Fed expects to raise interest rates one or two more times this year, but at a slower pace to avoid tipping the economy into recession. Also contributing to that Thursday gain was Apple, the largest S&P 500 holding, as its shares hit another new all-time high. From a technical perspective, the Bollinger Band Overbought/Oversold Index (BBI) crossed above 70 and into a slight overbought position last Wednesday. However, after hitting a high of 86 this Wednesday, it has retraced that move and now sits at a less volatile 74 level. Next week, with only more Fed speak and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure on Friday, it lines up to be more consolidation time. For TSP TIPS, none of the equity funds (C/S/I) made new highs this week, but both C and S remain at the top of the Composite Score and Performance Ranking leaderboards. As such, we are recommending no changes to our current investment mix. That said, we have only utilized one of our two monthly exchanges and the last day of June is Friday. If warranted, we will send out a quick reallocation notice on Thursday evening for execution before Friday noon, again if warranted.