TSP Market Summary: Week of October 14, 2023

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • S&P 500 gained 0.5% for the week despite daily swings around inflation data and geopolitics
  • TSP guidance remains cautious amid mixed economic signals and technical resistance levels
  • Israel-Hamas conflict adds geopolitical risk that could impact market stability going forward

In a week of daily 0.5%ish moves, the S&P 500 made it two up weeks in a row, but it sure did not feel like it by the time we got to Fridays 4327 close. Last Friday the S&P 500 had a daily gain of over one percent, which continued with nice daily gains of about 0.5 percent on Monday through Wednesday. Wednesday also gave us the September Producer Price Index (PPI), which rose 0.5% from last month, above the 0.3% forecast, but the least in the last three months. Before Thursdays open the Consumer Price Index came in showing an annual increase of 3.7%, the same as the previous month, and the S&P 500 gave back about 0.5%. On Friday we saw the October University of Michigan consumer sentiment falling to 63.0, the lowest level in the last five months. We also saw fears that the Israel-Hamas war could escalate geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the S&P 500 closing near session lows, but hanging on to a 0.5%ish weekly move. From a technical perspective we did see the S&P 500 cross above its 20 day Moving Average (MA) on Tuesday, but by Fridays close had retreated to only two points above that level. For TSP TIPS we remain cautious and will stay with our current investment mix.