For the S&P 500 it was a turbulent week marked by more than one percent daily moves every other day before it settled at 4224 on Friday. Monday kicked it off when it gapped up at the open and kept rising, notching that first one percent move for a gain. On Tuesday we built on that momentum and by mid-day climbed to a high of 4327 before falling back to a flat day. That mid-day high was the high for the week and from there the S&P 500 sold off the rest of the week. The rise in Treasury yields dominated the news and on Wednesday we had a one percent down day. This downturn continued into Thursday as the yield on the 10-year Treasury crossed 5% for the first time in 16 years, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 8%, a level not seen since 2000. On Friday the markets seemed exhausted as pressure from both the Ukraine/Russia and Israel/Hamas wars and lack of leadership in the House resulted with the second daily down move of over one percent (third for the week), and the S&P 500 closing at the session/week low of 4224. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 climbed to a Year-To Date high of 4607 on 27 July. From there the trend looks eerily similar to 2022, with a downward trend of lower highs and lower lows (refer to your favorite charting software). While there, youll notice that on Friday the S&P 500 closed below its 200 day Moving Average (MA) for the first time since 17 March. And then you have the support levels of 4216 on 3 October, 4048 on 4 May, and 3808 on 13 March. If the S&P 500 closes below 4216 (only 8 points from current level), it could then fall to the next support level of 4048, and so on, i.e. lower lows. For next week we get Mega Cap earnings reports from Alphabet, Meta and Amazon, and also GDP on Thursday. Following that will be the Fed interest rate decision on 1 November and possible government shutdown on 17 November. For TSP TIPS we consider it bullish when a funds 20MA>50MA>200MA. For the C fund it is weaker as it stands at 50MA>20MA>200MA. For the S fund it is even weaker as it stands at 50MA>200MA>20MA. And for the I fund it is bearish as it stands at 200MA>50MA>20MA. That said, on 23 September we recommended the G fund be our majority holding. However, we now recommend a further increase in that allocation with the following new investment mix.
For the S&P 500 it was a turbulent week marked by more than one percent daily moves every other day before it settled at 4224 on Friday. Monday kicked it off when it gapped up at the open and kept rising, notching that first one percent move for a gain. On Tuesday we built on that momentum and by mid-day climbed to a high of 4327 before falling back to a flat day. That mid-day high was the high for the week and from there the S&P 500 sold off the rest of the week. The rise in Treasury yields dominated the news and on Wednesday we had a one percent down day. This downturn continued into Thursday as the yield on the 10-year Treasury crossed 5% for the first time in 16 years, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 8%, a level not seen since 2000. On Friday the markets seemed exhausted as pressure from both the Ukraine/Russia and Israel/Hamas wars and lack of leadership in the House resulted with the second daily down move of over one percent (third for the week), and the S&P 500 closing at the session/week low of 4224. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 climbed to a Year-To Date high of 4607 on 27 July. From there the trend looks eerily similar to 2022, with a downward trend of lower highs and lower lows (refer to your favorite charting software). While there, youll notice that on Friday the S&P 500 closed below its 200 day Moving Average (MA) for the first time since 17 March. And then you have the support levels of 4216 on 3 October, 4048 on 4 May, and 3808 on 13 March. If the S&P 500 closes below 4216 (only 8 points from current level), it could then fall to the next support level of 4048, and so on, i.e. lower lows. For next week we get Mega Cap earnings reports from Alphabet, Meta and Amazon, and also GDP on Thursday. Following that will be the Fed interest rate decision on 1 November and possible government shutdown on 17 November. For TSP TIPS we consider it bullish when a funds 20MA>50MA>200MA. For the C fund it is weaker as it stands at 50MA>20MA>200MA. For the S fund it is even weaker as it stands at 50MA>200MA>20MA. And for the I fund it is bearish as it stands at 200MA>50MA>20MA. That said, on 23 September we recommended the G fund be our majority holding. However, we now recommend a further increase in that allocation with the following new investment mix.