TSP Market Summary: Week of November 25, 2023

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • S&P 500 extends winning streak to 4 weeks, breaking resistance and eyeing July highs
  • C Fund approaches all-time high at $70.97, climbing within 2% of yearly peak at $71.05
  • Technical indicators improve across S, I, and F funds with moving average crossovers

In a holiday shortened week, the S&P 500 closed Friday at 4556, up exactly 1.00% for the week and making it four straight up weeks for its longest weekly winning streak since June. In a week not dominated by tech, Monday turned out to be the best day of the week. Contributing to that was 1) Boeing (BA) gaining 4.5% on analysts upgrades and 2) U.S. crude rallying in anticipation that OPEC and its allies, OPEC+, would implement additional production cuts at an upcoming meeting on Sunday, 26 November. Tuesday was this weeks only down day as the University of Michigans (UMICH) November consumer sentiment number was revised sharply higher to 61.3 from a preliminary of 60.4, but it remained at the lowest level since May. UMICH also showed that inflation expectations for the year ahead increased more than expected to 4.5%, reaching the highest level since April, while the five-year outlook stood at 3.2%, a level not seen since March 2011. On Wednesday that optimism about the OPEC+ meeting was quickly shattered when it was pushed to next week, which then resulted in U.S. crude tumbling as much as 5%. Bitcoin also returned to the spotlight as it touched $38,415, marking its highest level since April 2022. In support, Coinbase (COIN) gained 16.5% this week. On Thanksgiving Thursday we hope everyone enjoyed being with friends and family. And finally on Friday, the markets closed early and the S&P 500 remained in negative territory until the final 10 minutes of trading, eking out a 0.06% gain for the day. From a technical perspective, last week we mentioned that lets keep the focus on resistance and 1 Septembers intraday high of 4541. Well, we broke above that level this week with that exactly 1.00% gain. So, the next step up is 27 Julys Year-To-Date (YTD) high of 4607, which is within reach less than 2% away. Next week we close out November with GDP and Core PCE mid-week. For TSP TIPS lets take a look at the C fund, which closed at $70.97. Its YTD high is $71.05 and all-time high is $72.41, so were getting close as we have climbed this wall of worry. Also, the S, I and F funds all saw their 20 day Moving Average (MA) cross above their 50 day MA this week. With regard the Performance Ranking, C continues to be at the top of the leader board while S and I battle for #2. Well see how things evolve this week and if warranted, will make a new investment mix next weekend.