All three major averages notched healthy gains this week with the S&P 500 hitting two new all-time highs before closing at 5234 on Friday. Looking back a week, the S&P 500 closed the previous Friday at 5117. On Monday the S&P 500 opened at 5154 for a nice gap up at the open, and higher than Mondays 5149 close. From there we were essentially flat with the S&P 500 sitting at 5174 before the Feds Interest Rate decision announcement at 2 PM on Wednesday. When the Fed said they would hold interest rates steady and maintain its forecast for three rate cuts this year, the markets took off in the next two hours with the S&P 500 crossing above 5200 for the first time and setting a record high. On Thursday that bullish trend continued with another S&P 500 new record close at 5241. On Friday the bull took a breather as the S&P 500 was down slightly at 5234. From a technical perspective, last week we mentioned four factors (10-year yield + higher highs + BB + Fed) that could drive the markets into consolidation. That said, Fed Chair Powells remarks returned some certainty to the markets and provided the impetus for a bullish breakout. Last week the 10-year Treasury was just shy of the 2024 high of 4.35%, and on Friday it closed at 4.22% (lower rates bullish for stocks). We also reversed the S&P 500 trend as it hit higher intraweek highs and higher intraweek lows, along with the resultant increase in Bollinger Band Width. Finally, the S&P 500 broke above the 5000 level on 22 February and has remained above that level for the last month while making new highs this week. As such, we remain bullish and hopefully well see five straight months of S&P 500 gains as we close out March. Theres not much on the economic front until Thursday and Friday when we get GDP and Core PCE respectively. That said, it will be a short week as the markets are closed on Good Friday. For TSP TIPS, the C fund made new all-time highs on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. That said, the I fund made new all-time highs on Wednesday and Thursday, while the S fund made new 52-week highs both days. On the Performance Ranking (PR is the weighted average of 1, 3, 6 and 12 month returns) front, the C fund remains at the top of the leaderboard. However, the S and I funds have been battling for the #2 position as their PRs have remained within 1% of each other. This past week the S funds 9.85% PR has now increased to greater than 1% as the I fund PR is 8.67%. As such, we recommend the following new investment mix for our second in March.
All three major averages notched healthy gains this week with the S&P 500 hitting two new all-time highs before closing at 5234 on Friday. Looking back a week, the S&P 500 closed the previous Friday at 5117. On Monday the S&P 500 opened at 5154 for a nice gap up at the open, and higher than Mondays 5149 close. From there we were essentially flat with the S&P 500 sitting at 5174 before the Feds Interest Rate decision announcement at 2 PM on Wednesday. When the Fed said they would hold interest rates steady and maintain its forecast for three rate cuts this year, the markets took off in the next two hours with the S&P 500 crossing above 5200 for the first time and setting a record high. On Thursday that bullish trend continued with another S&P 500 new record close at 5241. On Friday the bull took a breather as the S&P 500 was down slightly at 5234. From a technical perspective, last week we mentioned four factors (10-year yield + higher highs + BB + Fed) that could drive the markets into consolidation. That said, Fed Chair Powells remarks returned some certainty to the markets and provided the impetus for a bullish breakout. Last week the 10-year Treasury was just shy of the 2024 high of 4.35%, and on Friday it closed at 4.22% (lower rates bullish for stocks). We also reversed the S&P 500 trend as it hit higher intraweek highs and higher intraweek lows, along with the resultant increase in Bollinger Band Width. Finally, the S&P 500 broke above the 5000 level on 22 February and has remained above that level for the last month while making new highs this week. As such, we remain bullish and hopefully well see five straight months of S&P 500 gains as we close out March. Theres not much on the economic front until Thursday and Friday when we get GDP and Core PCE respectively. That said, it will be a short week as the markets are closed on Good Friday. For TSP TIPS, the C fund made new all-time highs on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. That said, the I fund made new all-time highs on Wednesday and Thursday, while the S fund made new 52-week highs both days. On the Performance Ranking (PR is the weighted average of 1, 3, 6 and 12 month returns) front, the C fund remains at the top of the leaderboard. However, the S and I funds have been battling for the #2 position as their PRs have remained within 1% of each other. This past week the S funds 9.85% PR has now increased to greater than 1% as the I fund PR is 8.67%. As such, we recommend the following new investment mix for our second in March.