The S&P 500 closed the week, month, quarter and year at new all-time record highs of 5254. In this holiday shortened week, the first two days were down while the second two were up. On Monday the S&P 500 gapped down 16 points at the open and stayed there for a slight daily loss. Tuesdays action was flat for the majority of the day before sliding off in the last 30 minutes, but holding just above the 5000 level. Similar to Monday but in the opposite direction, the S&P 500 gapped up 23 points at the open, accounting for about half of the new record closing high of 5248. This weeks big economic news started on Thursday when the final Q4 2023 annualized rate came in at 3.5%, slightly above the previously reported 3.2%. The University of Michigan (UMICH) March consumer sentiment number was also revised higher to 79.4 from a preliminary of 76.5, the highest since July 2021. The S&P 500 was flat until the final 30 minutes of trading when it pushed itself up slightly to another new record high of 5254. The markets were closed Friday, but the personal consumption expenditures price index increased 2.8% and 0.3% on an annual and monthly basis respectively, in line with expectations. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 now has two straight quarters of more than 10% gains, the first in more than a decade. That said, this is pretty noteworthy as Apple (APPL), the largest S&P 500 market cap stock, is down about 12% this quarter. Another major market cap component is Tesla (TSLA), down 27% and making it the S&P 500s worst-performing quarterly stock. Marchs close also makes it five straight up months for the S&P 500. Since 1950, there have been 30 five-month streaks for the S&P 500 and, as we like to do, how do the markets perform afterward, in this case 12 months? In two instances (current and July 2023) we do not have a complete set of data since they are still in-work. For the other 28, the average 12-month gain was 12.5% with a 93% win rate. Translating this to a 9-month period would give us 9.375% more until the end of 2024. This equates to an S&P 500 year end close of 5746, close to our 2 March update range of 5781 to 5902. Bolstering our bullishness is the fact that 82 stocks in the S&P 500 hit new 52-week highs on Thursday, and about 80% of the S&P 500 stocks are now above their 200 day Moving Averages. Seeing how AAPL and TSLAs are such large S&P 500 market cap components, a reversal to the upside could add to that bullishness. For next week the big economic news will be Fridays employment numbers and with the Dow 30 just shy of 40,000, the Dow Watch. For TSP TIPS our current investment mix still looks good, so we are recommending no changes.
The S&P 500 closed the week, month, quarter and year at new all-time record highs of 5254. In this holiday shortened week, the first two days were down while the second two were up. On Monday the S&P 500 gapped down 16 points at the open and stayed there for a slight daily loss. Tuesdays action was flat for the majority of the day before sliding off in the last 30 minutes, but holding just above the 5000 level. Similar to Monday but in the opposite direction, the S&P 500 gapped up 23 points at the open, accounting for about half of the new record closing high of 5248. This weeks big economic news started on Thursday when the final Q4 2023 annualized rate came in at 3.5%, slightly above the previously reported 3.2%. The University of Michigan (UMICH) March consumer sentiment number was also revised higher to 79.4 from a preliminary of 76.5, the highest since July 2021. The S&P 500 was flat until the final 30 minutes of trading when it pushed itself up slightly to another new record high of 5254. The markets were closed Friday, but the personal consumption expenditures price index increased 2.8% and 0.3% on an annual and monthly basis respectively, in line with expectations. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 now has two straight quarters of more than 10% gains, the first in more than a decade. That said, this is pretty noteworthy as Apple (APPL), the largest S&P 500 market cap stock, is down about 12% this quarter. Another major market cap component is Tesla (TSLA), down 27% and making it the S&P 500s worst-performing quarterly stock. Marchs close also makes it five straight up months for the S&P 500. Since 1950, there have been 30 five-month streaks for the S&P 500 and, as we like to do, how do the markets perform afterward, in this case 12 months? In two instances (current and July 2023) we do not have a complete set of data since they are still in-work. For the other 28, the average 12-month gain was 12.5% with a 93% win rate. Translating this to a 9-month period would give us 9.375% more until the end of 2024. This equates to an S&P 500 year end close of 5746, close to our 2 March update range of 5781 to 5902. Bolstering our bullishness is the fact that 82 stocks in the S&P 500 hit new 52-week highs on Thursday, and about 80% of the S&P 500 stocks are now above their 200 day Moving Averages. Seeing how AAPL and TSLAs are such large S&P 500 market cap components, a reversal to the upside could add to that bullishness. For next week the big economic news will be Fridays employment numbers and with the Dow 30 just shy of 40,000, the Dow Watch. For TSP TIPS our current investment mix still looks good, so we are recommending no changes.