Breaking a streak of three up weeks, the S&P was down slightly closing out the week at 5,460. About 30 minutes after Mondays open the S&P 500 made a charge towards a new intraday record high, but stalled out at 5,490, losing 0.3% for the day. On Tuesday the S&P 500 hit a low of 5,456 just after lunch, before recouping all of Mondays loss plus some. For the next two days the S&P 500 was range bound between Mondays high and Tuesdays low, waiting for the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index number before Friday's open. At 0830 May Core PCE came in at 0.1% for the month, and up 2.6% for the year, marking the lowest annual rate since March 2021. As such, the S&P 500 gapped up at the open and hit a new intraday record high of 5,523 in the next half hour. It then fell off and at 1530 still had an up week. In the final 30 minutes we went into negative territory, rebounded to a positive week, and then closed just below. Oh so close. Friday also marked the mid-year point, and we are up Year To Date (YTD), up for the quarter, up for the month, but not for the week. Ditto so close. Overshadowing that is the fact the S&P 500 remains bullish with a higher intraweek high and higher intraweek low this week. Next week will probably be flat as the markets close at 1300 on Wednesday, Independence Day on Thursday, and then a lot of people making it a longer weekend on Friday. So what should we anticipate for the rest of the year. In our 2 March update we mentioned that the S&P 500 was up for four straight months and stated that the year-end number could be between 5,781 and 5,902. A positive March made it five straight up months, and we gave a 5,746 projection. So lets look at a range between 5,746 and 5,902. From Fridays close of 5,460, thats a gain between 5.2% and 8.1%, within the realm of possibility. For TSP TIPS the C fund remains at the top of the Performance Ranking leaderboard by a wide margin. As such we recommend no changes to our current investment mix. Finally, we wish everyone a Happy 4th of July!!
Breaking a streak of three up weeks, the S&P was down slightly closing out the week at 5,460. About 30 minutes after Mondays open the S&P 500 made a charge towards a new intraday record high, but stalled out at 5,490, losing 0.3% for the day. On Tuesday the S&P 500 hit a low of 5,456 just after lunch, before recouping all of Mondays loss plus some. For the next two days the S&P 500 was range bound between Mondays high and Tuesdays low, waiting for the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index number before Friday's open. At 0830 May Core PCE came in at 0.1% for the month, and up 2.6% for the year, marking the lowest annual rate since March 2021. As such, the S&P 500 gapped up at the open and hit a new intraday record high of 5,523 in the next half hour. It then fell off and at 1530 still had an up week. In the final 30 minutes we went into negative territory, rebounded to a positive week, and then closed just below. Oh so close. Friday also marked the mid-year point, and we are up Year To Date (YTD), up for the quarter, up for the month, but not for the week. Ditto so close. Overshadowing that is the fact the S&P 500 remains bullish with a higher intraweek high and higher intraweek low this week. Next week will probably be flat as the markets close at 1300 on Wednesday, Independence Day on Thursday, and then a lot of people making it a longer weekend on Friday. So what should we anticipate for the rest of the year. In our 2 March update we mentioned that the S&P 500 was up for four straight months and stated that the year-end number could be between 5,781 and 5,902. A positive March made it five straight up months, and we gave a 5,746 projection. So lets look at a range between 5,746 and 5,902. From Fridays close of 5,460, thats a gain between 5.2% and 8.1%, within the realm of possibility. For TSP TIPS the C fund remains at the top of the Performance Ranking leaderboard by a wide margin. As such we recommend no changes to our current investment mix. Finally, we wish everyone a Happy 4th of July!!