The S&P 500 made it five up weeks in a row, closing Friday at a new record high of 5,815. The week started with a downside Monday, losing nearly 1% as the 10-year Treasury yield crossed above the 4% mark for the first time since August. However, on Tuesday the markets rebounded with mega caps leading the way with Nvidia seeing its fifth straight day of gains. All told, the S&P 500 closed at 5,751, almost exactly where it closed on the previous Friday. On Wednesday the markets opened on a bullish note with the S&P 500 quickly moving to a new intraday record high around noon. The Fed Minutes then came out showing that a "substantial majority" of officials favored the larger cut, lifting the S&P 500 to a new record closing high. Before Thursdays open the September consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.4% annually, topping expectations of 0.1% and 2.3%. As such, the S&P 500 gapped down at the open and remained at that level through the close. However, Friday was another story. Before the open Septembers producer price index (PPI) came in unchanged, below the monthly expectation of 0.1%. Combine that with bullish earnings from the big banks, and within the first 60 minutes of trading the S&P 500 shot straight up. All told it was another positive day for the markets with the S&P making a new record closing high of 5,815. Now some history. Two years ago today, on 12 October 2022, the S&P 500 closed at 3,577. That close marked the turnaround low point of the previous bear market, and the beginning of our current bull market. So now that were two years into it, and some 2,208 points higher, what should we expect next year? Since June 1932 there has been 14 bull markets with an average length of 3.8 years, with the longest bull market being the 11 year run from 2009 to 2020. In the last 12 of them that made it to their third birthday, the year three average gain was about 8% with a median return of nearly 10%. While not as potent as these first two years, yes, it is still bullish. And we have a bullish economy with good growth, with lower inflation and unemployment, so.. For next week economic news is light but earnings season will start to ramp up, with mega cap earnings the following week. For TSP TIPS, on Friday the C fund made a new all-time record high, while the S fund made a new 52 week high. As such, our investment mix continues to look good and we recommend no changes. Lastly, we are planning to have a Year to Date/Mutual Fund Window Zoom call at 1700 ET on Tuesday, 15 October so please mark your calendars. Link information to follow.
The S&P 500 made it five up weeks in a row, closing Friday at a new record high of 5,815. The week started with a downside Monday, losing nearly 1% as the 10-year Treasury yield crossed above the 4% mark for the first time since August. However, on Tuesday the markets rebounded with mega caps leading the way with Nvidia seeing its fifth straight day of gains. All told, the S&P 500 closed at 5,751, almost exactly where it closed on the previous Friday. On Wednesday the markets opened on a bullish note with the S&P 500 quickly moving to a new intraday record high around noon. The Fed Minutes then came out showing that a "substantial majority" of officials favored the larger cut, lifting the S&P 500 to a new record closing high. Before Thursdays open the September consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.4% annually, topping expectations of 0.1% and 2.3%. As such, the S&P 500 gapped down at the open and remained at that level through the close. However, Friday was another story. Before the open Septembers producer price index (PPI) came in unchanged, below the monthly expectation of 0.1%. Combine that with bullish earnings from the big banks, and within the first 60 minutes of trading the S&P 500 shot straight up. All told it was another positive day for the markets with the S&P making a new record closing high of 5,815. Now some history. Two years ago today, on 12 October 2022, the S&P 500 closed at 3,577. That close marked the turnaround low point of the previous bear market, and the beginning of our current bull market. So now that were two years into it, and some 2,208 points higher, what should we expect next year? Since June 1932 there has been 14 bull markets with an average length of 3.8 years, with the longest bull market being the 11 year run from 2009 to 2020. In the last 12 of them that made it to their third birthday, the year three average gain was about 8% with a median return of nearly 10%. While not as potent as these first two years, yes, it is still bullish. And we have a bullish economy with good growth, with lower inflation and unemployment, so.. For next week economic news is light but earnings season will start to ramp up, with mega cap earnings the following week. For TSP TIPS, on Friday the C fund made a new all-time record high, while the S fund made a new 52 week high. As such, our investment mix continues to look good and we recommend no changes. Lastly, we are planning to have a Year to Date/Mutual Fund Window Zoom call at 1700 ET on Tuesday, 15 October so please mark your calendars. Link information to follow.