In a week dominated by election news, the S&P 500 closed up for the week at 5,995. Monday started off on a sour note, extending the Halloween sell-off. Tuesday was election day with the markets marching higher, closing at a session high of 5,782, and scoring its first daily gain of over 1% since 19 September. After the close, the uncertainty leading up to election became clearer and the markets rallied overnight. The S&P 500 gapped up at the open and within the first 5 minutes crossed above the 5,900 for the first time ever, leap frogging over the entire 5,800 range. Closing at a new record high, it was its best day since 30 November 2022. On Thursday the Fed lowered interest rates for the second time in a row, and the rally continued with another new record close for the S&P 500. And once again, the rally continued into Friday with the S&P 500 crossing into 6,000 territory around 1 PM before settling back to 5,995 for its best week since 3 November 2023. Those three new all-time highs pushed the total to 50 this year, and in case youre wondering, the most in a year was 77 in 1995. So what has changed technically. Last week we listed five bearish concerns. With this bullish election rally, four of those concerns are no longer a factor. Specifically, 1) after two down weeks, the S&P 500 reversed course with an up week, 2) the S&P 500 crossed back above its 20 day Moving Average (MA), 3) the 20 MA reversed course and turned upward and 4) the 10 EMA crossed above the 20 MA. The fifth concern that remains was the S&P 500 weekly bar not making a higher low than the previous week, as it dipped below that level by 6 points on Monday. However it did make a higher high, so it got it half right. As you know, we always like to look back at historical data. The last time Trump was elected was on 8 November 2016 and the S&P 500 closed at 2,139. On 31 December 2016 it was 2,238, and on 31 December 2017 it was 2,673 for an annual return of 19.4%. Just something to keep in mind as we get closer to 2025. For TSP TIPS both the S and C funds made new record highs on Wednesday through Friday. But what a difference. Like the S&P 500, the C fund also has 50 new record highs in 2024. However, this was the first time the S fund has scored a new record high in three years, going back to 8 November 2021. The S fund has also ascended to the #1 position on the Performance Ranking leaderboard. As such we are recommending the following new investment mix.
In a week dominated by election news, the S&P 500 closed up for the week at 5,995. Monday started off on a sour note, extending the Halloween sell-off. Tuesday was election day with the markets marching higher, closing at a session high of 5,782, and scoring its first daily gain of over 1% since 19 September. After the close, the uncertainty leading up to election became clearer and the markets rallied overnight. The S&P 500 gapped up at the open and within the first 5 minutes crossed above the 5,900 for the first time ever, leap frogging over the entire 5,800 range. Closing at a new record high, it was its best day since 30 November 2022. On Thursday the Fed lowered interest rates for the second time in a row, and the rally continued with another new record close for the S&P 500. And once again, the rally continued into Friday with the S&P 500 crossing into 6,000 territory around 1 PM before settling back to 5,995 for its best week since 3 November 2023. Those three new all-time highs pushed the total to 50 this year, and in case youre wondering, the most in a year was 77 in 1995. So what has changed technically. Last week we listed five bearish concerns. With this bullish election rally, four of those concerns are no longer a factor. Specifically, 1) after two down weeks, the S&P 500 reversed course with an up week, 2) the S&P 500 crossed back above its 20 day Moving Average (MA), 3) the 20 MA reversed course and turned upward and 4) the 10 EMA crossed above the 20 MA. The fifth concern that remains was the S&P 500 weekly bar not making a higher low than the previous week, as it dipped below that level by 6 points on Monday. However it did make a higher high, so it got it half right. As you know, we always like to look back at historical data. The last time Trump was elected was on 8 November 2016 and the S&P 500 closed at 2,139. On 31 December 2016 it was 2,238, and on 31 December 2017 it was 2,673 for an annual return of 19.4%. Just something to keep in mind as we get closer to 2025. For TSP TIPS both the S and C funds made new record highs on Wednesday through Friday. But what a difference. Like the S&P 500, the C fund also has 50 new record highs in 2024. However, this was the first time the S fund has scored a new record high in three years, going back to 8 November 2021. The S fund has also ascended to the #1 position on the Performance Ranking leaderboard. As such we are recommending the following new investment mix.