TSP Market Summary: Week of December 28, 2024

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • Markets had best Christmas Eve since 1974 but ended week with broad-based Friday selloff
  • Rising 10-year Treasury rates pressured both stock and bond funds, with I and F funds declining
  • Technical breakdown below 50-day average signals potential continued weakness ahead

The S&P 500 broke a two week down streak, closing up this week at 5,970. This was a Santa/Grinch type of week, with Christmas falling between the two. Monday was a positive day with a nice gain, and Tuesdays opening bell kicked off the start of the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) period. In a holiday shortened session, it was the best Christmas Eve since 1974 and the S&P 500 had a daily gain of over 1%. Wednesday the markets were closed for Christmas, and Thursday the S&P 500 had a slight loss as the 10 year Treasury Note rate hit its highest level since May. On Friday the Grinch arrived and the S&P 500 gapped down at the open to just above 6,000. That was Fridays high as all 11 S&P 500 sectors were down for the day, with the S&P 500, Russell 2000 Small Cap, and NASDAQ 100 notching daily losses greater than 1%. To top that off, 29 of the 30 Dow stocks closed in the red. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 briefly crossed below its 50 day Moving Average (MA) on Friday during the noon hour, but closed halfway between its 20 and 50 MAs by the close. Also increasing interest rates, i.e. 10 Year Note, put pressure on the equity sector. For TSP TIPS we have seen a decrease in both the Composite Scores and Performance Ranking (PR) for all the individual TSP funds, with the I and F funds now in negative PR territory. As such, we are recommending the following new investment mix. Lastly, we wish everyone a Happy New Year!!

Recommended Allocation (Moderate Profile)

This is our historical recommendation from this date. For current recommendations, subscribe.

G FundF FundC FundS FundI Fund
50% 0% 33% 17% 0%