TSP Market Summary: 2025
49 weekly market commentaries from 2025.
November 2025
Week of November 01, 2025
S&P 500 hit third straight weekly gain reaching 6,840, with all TSP equity funds hitting new highs amid U.S.-China diplomacy hopes and mixed tech earnings.
- • S&P 500 achieved longest winning streak since 2021 with five consecutive monthly gains
October 2025
Week of October 25, 2025
S&P 500 hit record high of 6,791 driven by lower inflation data and tech optimism. All TSP equity funds reached new highs with strong outlook.
- • S&P 500 set new record high as inflation cooled to 3%, below expectations
Week of October 18, 2025
S&P 500 gained 1.7% this week amid Trump's China trade reassurances and Fed rate cut signals. TSP fund scores remain similar with no allocation changes recommended.
- • Markets rallied on eased China trade tensions and Fed Chair Powell signaling more rate cuts ahead
Week of October 11, 2025
S&P 500 fell 2.71% Friday on China tariff fears, ending weekly gains. TSP C, S, and I funds hit new highs before decline. Earnings season ahead.
- • China trade tensions caused sharp Friday selloff, erasing weekly gains for stocks
Week of October 04, 2025
Despite government shutdown, markets hit new highs with C and I funds setting records. Current TSP positioning maintained with no changes recommended.
- • S&P 500 and TSP C fund hit record highs three consecutive days despite government shutdown
September 2025
Week of September 27, 2025
S&P 500 fell just short of fourth straight weekly gain, closing at 6,643. C and S funds neck-and-neck in performance rankings with C fund hitting new highs.
- • Market volatility driven by AI investments, Fed comments, and strong GDP growth of 3.8%
Week of September 20, 2025
S&P 500 hit third consecutive weekly gain with new record highs. Fed cut rates 0.25% but signaled fewer future cuts, causing mixed reactions.
- • S&P 500 reached new record highs for third straight week, with small-cap stocks also surging
Week of September 13, 2025
S&P 500 hit three record highs this week, driven by Oracle's massive earnings and positive economic data. All TSP equity funds reached new all-time highs.
- • S&P 500 set three record highs this week, with strongest performance since early August
Week of September 06, 2025
S&P 500 hit new record highs despite weak jobs data. C and S funds reached all-time highs with broadening market rally continuing.
- • S&P 500 broke 6,500 for first time with C fund hitting all-time high Thursday
August 2025
Week of August 30, 2025
S&P 500 declined 6 points despite hitting new records mid-week. Strong GDP growth offset Nvidia disappointment. TSP C and S funds reached all-time highs.
- • S&P 500 set new records despite ending week lower; fourth straight month of gains
Week of August 23, 2025
S&P 500 broke 5-day losing streak with strong Friday rally on Fed rate cut signals. All TSP stock funds score 100, International fund hits new high.
- • Fed Chair Powell signals potential rate cuts in September, driving strong market recovery
Week of August 16, 2025
S&P 500 hit three new records this week on better-than-expected inflation data. C, F, and I funds all reached new highs with no allocation changes recommended.
- • Markets surged on 2.7% CPI reading, beating 2.8% expectations and boosting rate cut hopes
Week of August 09, 2025
S&P 500 recovered from selloff, closing at 6389.45. Trump's chip tariffs and Apple's $100B investment drove tech gains. C and I funds both strong.
- • S&P 500 nearly hit record high despite volatile week with Trump chip tariff announcement
Week of August 03, 2025
Markets ended July's calm with Friday's 1.6% S&P 500 drop due to weak jobs data, disappointing Apple/Amazon earnings, and new tariffs. TSP models increase cash.
- • Weak July jobs report and disappointing Big Tech earnings triggered worst market day since May
July 2025
Week of July 26, 2025
S&P 500 hit record highs all five days this week, first time since 2021. C and S funds followed suit with strong gains amid positive earnings.
- • S&P 500 achieved rare perfect week with 5 consecutive record highs, boosting C fund performance
Week of July 19, 2025
S&P 500 hit record highs above 6,300 despite tariff concerns. Strong earnings and economic data boosted markets, with C Fund breaking 100 for first time.
- • S&P 500 set multiple records above 6,300, with C Fund hitting historic milestone above 100
Week of July 12, 2025
S&P 500 broke 2-week winning streak amid volatile tariff announcements. Markets stayed range-bound despite policy uncertainty and new Bitcoin highs.
- • Tariff announcements on multiple countries created initial volatility but markets stabilized
Week of July 06, 2025
S&P 500 hit three record highs in holiday-shortened week on positive trade news and strong jobs data. TSP C and I funds at new highs.
- • S&P 500 set three record highs this week on Canada tax reversal and Vietnam trade deal
June 2025
Week of June 28, 2025
S&P 500 hits new record high at 6,173 despite geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty. TSP C and I funds reach new highs with strong momentum.
- • Markets shrugged off Iran tensions and trade concerns to reach new record highs this week
Week of June 21, 2025
S&P 500 fell second week as geopolitical tensions and Fed policy uncertainty created volatility around 6,000 level. TSP models raise cash amid consolidation.
- • S&P 500 consolidated in narrowest weekly range of 2025, struggling around 6,000 resistance
Week of June 14, 2025
S&P 500 broke winning streak Friday as Israel-Iran tensions erased earlier gains from positive inflation data and U.S.-China trade progress.
- • Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran overshadowed positive inflation and trade news
Week of June 07, 2025
S&P 500 hit 6,000 for first time since February on strong jobs data. I Fund leads TSP performance rankings while C and S Fund gap narrows.
- • S&P 500 regained 6,000 level with back-to-back weekly gains and strong Friday rally
May 2025
Week of May 31, 2025
S&P 500 ended May higher despite trade tariff volatility. I Fund leads TSP performance at 8.6% while key economic data approaches in June.
- • Trade tariff news created major market swings but S&P 500 had best month since Nov 2023
Week of May 29, 2025
TSP models see minor adjustments with final May reallocation deadline set for Friday noon. Aggressive model unchanged while Moderate and Conservative see tweaks.
- • Final May TSP reallocation opportunity available with Thursday evening recommendations
Week of May 24, 2025
S&P 500 declined on US credit downgrade and rising rates hitting 4.63%. TSP I fund hit records while C/S funds fell. No allocation changes recommended.
- • Rising Treasury yields (10-year at 4.63%) pressured stocks after US credit rating downgrade
Week of May 17, 2025
S&P 500 gained five straight days on U.S.-China tariff pause and cooling inflation. I Fund hit new highs while Moody's downgraded U.S. credit rating.
- • U.S.-China tariff pause and falling inflation drove strong stock market gains all week
Week of May 10, 2025
S&P 500 down slightly amid Fed decision and trade developments. I fund hits record high. TSP allocation unchanged with I fund leading performance.
- • Markets showed reduced volatility with first sub-1% weekly move since March 21
Week of May 03, 2025
S&P 500 achieved 9 straight up days amid mixed economic data and strong earnings. TSP equity funds show improved performance rankings with I fund leading.
- • S&P 500 posted 9 consecutive gains, longest streak since 2004, despite GDP decline
April 2025
Week of April 26, 2025
S&P 500 climbed to 5,525 despite daily swings over 2% from Trump Fed/tariff comments. Rare bullish signal suggests strong gains ahead for TSP equity funds.
- • Market volatility driven by Trump's Fed criticism and mixed China tariff signals this week
Week of April 18, 2025
S&P 500 fell 1.5% amid tariff concerns and Nvidia's $5.5B charge. International stocks (I Fund) outperformed with 11% gains since early April lows.
- • S&P 500 hit 'Death Cross' technical signal while tariff worries drove major sell-off
Week of April 12, 2025
S&P 500 surged 5.7% after volatile week with brief bear market dip. TSP guidance remains cautious on equity funds despite strong recovery.
- • S&P 500 had wild swings but ended with best week since November 2023 on tariff hopes
Week of April 07, 2025
TSP TIPS hosts Q1 2025 review meeting April 9th covering TSP funds, Mutual Fund Window options, and new Schwab aggressive growth strategies.
- • Quarterly TSP performance review scheduled for April 9th at 5 PM Eastern
Week of April 05, 2025
Markets plunged over 10% in two days following tariff implementation, with S&P 500 hitting session lows. Volatility expected to continue.
- • Tariffs triggered massive selloff - S&P 500 down 10.5% in just two days after announcement
Week of April 04, 2025
Markets suffered worst day since 2020 amid tariff concerns. TSP recommendation shifts to 100% G Fund as protective measure against continued volatility.
- • Markets had worst day since 2020 with C Fund down 4.83%, S Fund down 6.99%, I Fund down 1.85%
March 2025
Week of March 29, 2025
S&P 500 drops to 5,580 amid tariff uncertainty and hot inflation data. TSP C and S funds struggle while I fund remains positive.
- • Markets fell 5 of last 6 weeks on conflicting tariff signals and higher-than-expected inflation
Week of March 22, 2025
S&P 500 broke 4-week losing streak amid Fed meeting and tariff uncertainty. Markets remain volatile with correction risks as key economic data looms.
- • S&P 500 ended 4-week decline but remains 500 points below February highs near correction levels
Week of March 15, 2025
S&P 500 enters correction territory amid tariff fears but rebounds Friday. International fund (I) continues outperforming domestic funds (C/S).
- • Markets fell into correction territory Thursday but showed bullish reversal signals Friday
Week of March 08, 2025
Markets faced tariff uncertainty with S&P 500 having six straight days of 1%+ moves, worst week since September. TSP models stayed positive via I/F funds.
- • Tariff concerns caused extreme market volatility - six consecutive days of 1%+ S&P moves
Week of March 01, 2025
S&P 500 ended volatile week flat at 5,954 after Nvidia selloff and geopolitical concerns. TSP allocation shifts favor I and F funds based on improving scores.
- • Markets showed volatility with Nvidia's 8.5% drop Thursday fully recovered by Friday's close
February 2025
Week of February 26, 2025
S&P 500 declined 0.5% daily Mon-Tue, with failed Wed rebound. I Fund now outperforming C Fund, prompting potential TSP reallocation by Feb end.
- • U.S. stocks fell consistently with S&P 500 down ~0.5% Monday and Tuesday, brief recovery failed
Week of February 22, 2025
Markets hit record highs mid-week but sold off Friday on inflation concerns and defense budget cuts. C Fund leads performance rankings.
- • S&P 500 set records Tuesday/Wednesday but fell below 20-day average by Friday's close
Week of February 15, 2025
S&P 500 breaks two-week decline, nearing record highs despite mixed inflation data. TSP C Fund scores perfect rating, prompting new allocation recommendations.
- • S&P 500 recovered from inflation concerns to close near record highs at 6,114
Week of February 08, 2025
S&P 500 declined for second week amid tariff concerns and mixed earnings. TSP fund technical indicators show caution warranted before reallocating.
- • Markets fell on tariff announcements but recovered when border tariffs were paused one month
Week of February 01, 2025
S&P 500 ended weekly losing streak as AI concerns hit tech stocks early week, but strong earnings and Fed pause provided support before tariff worries emerged Friday.
- • DeepSeek AI breakthrough sparked massive tech selloff, with Nvidia losing record $600B in one day
January 2025
Week of January 25, 2025
S&P 500 hit new record highs above 6,100 for second straight week. TSP equity allocation remains unchanged ahead of busy earnings and Fed week.
- • S&P 500 set new records, closing at 6,101 with strong Netflix earnings and data center news
Week of January 18, 2025
S&P 500 had its best week of 2025, nearly hitting 6K on positive inflation data and strong bank earnings, prompting increased equity allocation recommendations.
- • S&P 500 posted first positive weekly return of 2025, closing just shy of 6,000 points
Week of January 11, 2025
S&P 500 hit 2025 lows amid strong jobs data and inflation concerns. Rising rates pressure stocks as markets show bearish technical patterns.
- • Strong jobs report pushed 10-year Treasury to highest level since November 2023, pressuring stocks
Week of January 04, 2025
S&P 500 ended 2024 with rare 4-day losing streak, first since 1966. Failed Santa Claus Rally historically signals weaker annual returns ahead.
- • S&P 500 posted first 4-day losing streak to end year since 1966, signaling potential weakness
Week of November 08, 2025
S&P 500 ended three-week winning streak amid tech valuation concerns. C, S, and I funds declined but remain near recent highs. Slight equity reduction recommended.