The S&P 500 snapped a two-week winning streak, finishing lower on Friday at 6,040.32. On Monday the markets gapped down at the open on concerns that the Chinese startup DeepSeek made a competitive AI model for a fraction of the billions Silicon Valley is spending. As such, Nvidia shares plunged 17% resulting in a market cap loss of close to $600 billion, the largest single-day loss for a company in stock market history. On Tuesday the markets clawed back about 2/3rds of Mondays losses on hopes of positive upcoming earnings reports. On Wednesday afternoon the Feds decision was to keep the fed rate steady, pausing its rate-cutting cycle and noting that recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. After Wednesdays close positive earnings reports from Meta and Microsoft boosted investor sentiment, followed by further strong earnings reports from Apple and Tesla on Thursday. Before Fridays open the core PCE price index rose by 0.2% from December and in-line with expectations. Annually, the core PCE inflation rate was unchanged at 2.8% for the second month, remaining well above the Federal Reserves target of 2%. The markets gapped up at the open and by 1100 was standing at 6,120, two points above the record closing high. That said, Friday afternoon came around and tariff news took the spotlight, sending the S&P 500 downward to its 6,040 close. From a technical perspective, it would have been nice to set a new record high on Friday, and see its 20 day Moving Average (MA) cross above its 50 day, but.. That close also resulted in a weekly loss, and weakness going into the weeks close usually does not bode well for next week. And that week will bring us earnings from Alphabet and Amazon and then Januarys payrolls and unemployment numbers on Friday. For TSP TIPS last week we stated that If this bullishness continues through the end of January, well reallocate the G funds second half on Monday, 3 February. This week, all the equity funds (C/S/I) were down, while the F fund was the only winner. Also, the C, S, and I funds 20 MAs are all BELOW their 50 MAs. As such, well hold off on the above reallocation hoping to see those 20 MA's cross ABOVE their 50 MA's.
The S&P 500 snapped a two-week winning streak, finishing lower on Friday at 6,040.32. On Monday the markets gapped down at the open on concerns that the Chinese startup DeepSeek made a competitive AI model for a fraction of the billions Silicon Valley is spending. As such, Nvidia shares plunged 17% resulting in a market cap loss of close to $600 billion, the largest single-day loss for a company in stock market history. On Tuesday the markets clawed back about 2/3rds of Mondays losses on hopes of positive upcoming earnings reports. On Wednesday afternoon the Feds decision was to keep the fed rate steady, pausing its rate-cutting cycle and noting that recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. After Wednesdays close positive earnings reports from Meta and Microsoft boosted investor sentiment, followed by further strong earnings reports from Apple and Tesla on Thursday. Before Fridays open the core PCE price index rose by 0.2% from December and in-line with expectations. Annually, the core PCE inflation rate was unchanged at 2.8% for the second month, remaining well above the Federal Reserves target of 2%. The markets gapped up at the open and by 1100 was standing at 6,120, two points above the record closing high. That said, Friday afternoon came around and tariff news took the spotlight, sending the S&P 500 downward to its 6,040 close. From a technical perspective, it would have been nice to set a new record high on Friday, and see its 20 day Moving Average (MA) cross above its 50 day, but.. That close also resulted in a weekly loss, and weakness going into the weeks close usually does not bode well for next week. And that week will bring us earnings from Alphabet and Amazon and then Januarys payrolls and unemployment numbers on Friday. For TSP TIPS last week we stated that If this bullishness continues through the end of January, well reallocate the G funds second half on Monday, 3 February. This week, all the equity funds (C/S/I) were down, while the F fund was the only winner. Also, the C, S, and I funds 20 MAs are all BELOW their 50 MAs. As such, well hold off on the above reallocation hoping to see those 20 MA's cross ABOVE their 50 MA's.