The S&P 500 was down for a second week in a row as it closed Friday at 6,025. Monday started out poorly as the S&P 500 gapped down at the open after news of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, plus a 10% levy on China. However, investor sentiment started to rebound in the afternoon when it was announced that tariffs would be paused for one month for our border countries. Monday also saw Palantir (PLTR) close at $83.74, and then reported good earnings after the bell. On Tuesday it opened at $102.80 and provided a boost to both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, climbing to a Friday close at $110.85. However, earnings reports from Alphabet on Tuesday and Amazon on Thursday were not so kind, offsetting PLTRs gains. Before Fridays open the January nonfarm payrolls number came in at 143,000, below the 169,000 forecast and down from an upwardly revised 307,000 in December. That said, the unemployment rate nudged lower to 4% from 4.1%. From a technical perspective the last two weeks have seen sell offs on Mondays followed by the market trying to climb out from that hole. To recap, on Friday 24 January the S&P 500 hit a new intraday high of 6,128. On Monday 27 January (Deepsink) the S&P 500 had an intraweek low of 5,962. Then on Friday 31 January it hit an intraweek high of 6,120. So we roll over to this Monday, 3 February (tariffs) and we score another intraweek low of 5,923. Then on this Friday 7 February it hit an intraweek high of 6,101. So over the last two weeks weve had lower intraweek highs AND lower intraweek lows, i.e. not trending in the right direction. For next week we get Fed Chair Powell testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. Also on Wednesday we start to get two days of inflation numbers. This past Friday President Trump said he was planning reciprocal tariffs on trading partners, raising tariff levels across the board to equal rates charged to the U.S. For TSP TIPS last week we mentioned that the C, S, and I funds 20 day Moving Averages (MAs) were all below their 50 MAs. Weve made progress with the C and I funds 20 MAs crossing above their 50 MAs, but this two week down trend has given us pause. Specifically, it looks like these funds 10 day Exponential MAs will cross below their 20 MAs. As such, we recommend holding off on making any investment mix reallocations until hopefully seeing a breakout to the upside.
The S&P 500 was down for a second week in a row as it closed Friday at 6,025. Monday started out poorly as the S&P 500 gapped down at the open after news of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, plus a 10% levy on China. However, investor sentiment started to rebound in the afternoon when it was announced that tariffs would be paused for one month for our border countries. Monday also saw Palantir (PLTR) close at $83.74, and then reported good earnings after the bell. On Tuesday it opened at $102.80 and provided a boost to both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, climbing to a Friday close at $110.85. However, earnings reports from Alphabet on Tuesday and Amazon on Thursday were not so kind, offsetting PLTRs gains. Before Fridays open the January nonfarm payrolls number came in at 143,000, below the 169,000 forecast and down from an upwardly revised 307,000 in December. That said, the unemployment rate nudged lower to 4% from 4.1%. From a technical perspective the last two weeks have seen sell offs on Mondays followed by the market trying to climb out from that hole. To recap, on Friday 24 January the S&P 500 hit a new intraday high of 6,128. On Monday 27 January (Deepsink) the S&P 500 had an intraweek low of 5,962. Then on Friday 31 January it hit an intraweek high of 6,120. So we roll over to this Monday, 3 February (tariffs) and we score another intraweek low of 5,923. Then on this Friday 7 February it hit an intraweek high of 6,101. So over the last two weeks weve had lower intraweek highs AND lower intraweek lows, i.e. not trending in the right direction. For next week we get Fed Chair Powell testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. Also on Wednesday we start to get two days of inflation numbers. This past Friday President Trump said he was planning reciprocal tariffs on trading partners, raising tariff levels across the board to equal rates charged to the U.S. For TSP TIPS last week we mentioned that the C, S, and I funds 20 day Moving Averages (MAs) were all below their 50 MAs. Weve made progress with the C and I funds 20 MAs crossing above their 50 MAs, but this two week down trend has given us pause. Specifically, it looks like these funds 10 day Exponential MAs will cross below their 20 MAs. As such, we recommend holding off on making any investment mix reallocations until hopefully seeing a breakout to the upside.