So what does the word "tariff" and the "S&P 500 daily performance" have in common from Thursday, 27 February through Thursday 6 March. The answer is six, the number of letters in tariff and the number of days in a row the S&P 500 had daily moves of over 1%. While I usually take you through the week on a day-by-day basis, the spotlight topic for the last 7 trading days has been tariffs, i.e. on/off again, exemptions, and retaliations. Even on Friday morning, the S&P 500 was down over 1% until Fed Chair Powell gave a calming speech over the lunch hour which turned the markets into positive territory. With that, the S&P 500 closed up on Friday at 5,770, but down on the week for its largest weekly loss since the week ending on 6 September 2024. And it was not alone as the Dow and NASDAQ also had their worst weeks since September. We could go on but nuf said, you get the picture. From a technical perspective, on an intraday basis the S&P 500 dropped below its 200 day Moving Average support level on Thursday and Friday. It also closed lower for the third week in a row and is now in negative territory on a Year To Date (YTD) basis. Analytically, lets look further into those last 7 trading days. On 27 February the S&P 500 closed at 5861.56, and on Friday 7 March it closed at 5770.20 for a loss of 1.56%, so lots of churn but not that bad. And lastly, from a historical basis the last time we had a six day period of greater than 1% daily moves was in March 2020, the beginning of COVID. For next week we get the inflation numbers on Wednesday and Thursday, and then UMICH consumer sentiment on Friday. For TSP TIPS we have also looked at that period between 27 February, when we made our last reallocation, and this Friday. All three models had positive returns as follows, Aggressive 2.36%, Moderate 1.05%, and Conservative 0.95%. This was primarily due to the new investment mix on 27 February which shifted money into the I and F funds. That said, those two funds also have the best Composite Scores and Performance Rankings. Shifting gears, one of the nice functions of the TSP web site is that you can check your account valuations between multiple time periods and custom dates, i.e. YTD, Last Year, or since your birthday or election. You can access this feature by logging in, select Account Activity, select Time period, and hit redisplay. Finally, we recommend shifting funds from the C to I fund in the Moderate and Conservative models as follows.
So what does the word "tariff" and the "S&P 500 daily performance" have in common from Thursday, 27 February through Thursday 6 March. The answer is six, the number of letters in tariff and the number of days in a row the S&P 500 had daily moves of over 1%. While I usually take you through the week on a day-by-day basis, the spotlight topic for the last 7 trading days has been tariffs, i.e. on/off again, exemptions, and retaliations. Even on Friday morning, the S&P 500 was down over 1% until Fed Chair Powell gave a calming speech over the lunch hour which turned the markets into positive territory. With that, the S&P 500 closed up on Friday at 5,770, but down on the week for its largest weekly loss since the week ending on 6 September 2024. And it was not alone as the Dow and NASDAQ also had their worst weeks since September. We could go on but nuf said, you get the picture. From a technical perspective, on an intraday basis the S&P 500 dropped below its 200 day Moving Average support level on Thursday and Friday. It also closed lower for the third week in a row and is now in negative territory on a Year To Date (YTD) basis. Analytically, lets look further into those last 7 trading days. On 27 February the S&P 500 closed at 5861.56, and on Friday 7 March it closed at 5770.20 for a loss of 1.56%, so lots of churn but not that bad. And lastly, from a historical basis the last time we had a six day period of greater than 1% daily moves was in March 2020, the beginning of COVID. For next week we get the inflation numbers on Wednesday and Thursday, and then UMICH consumer sentiment on Friday. For TSP TIPS we have also looked at that period between 27 February, when we made our last reallocation, and this Friday. All three models had positive returns as follows, Aggressive 2.36%, Moderate 1.05%, and Conservative 0.95%. This was primarily due to the new investment mix on 27 February which shifted money into the I and F funds. That said, those two funds also have the best Composite Scores and Performance Rankings. Shifting gears, one of the nice functions of the TSP web site is that you can check your account valuations between multiple time periods and custom dates, i.e. YTD, Last Year, or since your birthday or election. You can access this feature by logging in, select Account Activity, select Time period, and hit redisplay. Finally, we recommend shifting funds from the C to I fund in the Moderate and Conservative models as follows.