The S&P 500 broke a streak of four consecutive down weeks when it closed Friday at 5,667. Again, tariff talks dominated market action throughout the week. Monday was a positive day as the S&P 500 built on the previous Fridays gain of over 2% gain. On Tuesday the sell-off came back in full force with the S&P 500s daily loss of greater than 1%. Of note was Metas 3.7% loss, making it the final member of the Magnificent Seven to fall into the red for 2025. Wednesday was Fed day as the markets awaited the fed announcement at 1400. As expected, the central bank kept the federal funds rate unchanged, kept its outlook at two rate cuts for this year, and noted that uncertainty (key word) around the economic outlook has increased. At that point the markets rallied to a daily gain of over 1%, negating Tuesdays loss and closing at 5,675, the same point level as Mondays close. On Thursday the markets were pretty much muted but then came Friday. The S&P 500 gapped down at the open, turning the week into negative territory and thereby extending the weekly loss streak to five. However, at noon when President Trump stated there would be some flexibility with tariffs, the markets rallied into the close and we broke that streak of four down weeks. From a technical perspective we are now one month removed from 19 February, when the S&P 500 hit a new record closing high of 6,144. That loss of nearly 500 points has seen the S&P 500 briefly slip into correction territory (down 10% from record high) last week. It has also seen Tesla marking its first nine-week losing streak ever. On a positive note we have seen the Bollinger Band (BB) width start to narrow with the BB index decreasing from a high of 136 on 13 March to 100 this Friday. As such, we seem to be building into a consolidation range, and hopefully we can remain above the 5,505 level, 13 Marchs low. For next week well see durable goods, GDP and core PCE on Wednesday through Friday. But 2 April brings us the tariff reciprocal deadline, where all countries that have tariffs on U.S. goods will be charged. That said, the markets may be muted until then. As such, we recommend no changes to our current TSP TIPS investment mix and will probably remain that way through the end of March. That scenario leaves us with one remaining investment mix available in March, and a good opportunity to consider a move to Mutual Fund Window (MFW) TIPS as that second March investment mix. MFW TIPS focuses on the ProFunds Bitcoin (BTCFX) and Ultra NASDAQ 100 (UOPIX) funds, and we are currently 100% in cash after selling BTCFX and UOPIX on 10 and 24 February respectively. In closing, we hope everyone is enjoying our first Spring weekend!!
The S&P 500 broke a streak of four consecutive down weeks when it closed Friday at 5,667. Again, tariff talks dominated market action throughout the week. Monday was a positive day as the S&P 500 built on the previous Fridays gain of over 2% gain. On Tuesday the sell-off came back in full force with the S&P 500s daily loss of greater than 1%. Of note was Metas 3.7% loss, making it the final member of the Magnificent Seven to fall into the red for 2025. Wednesday was Fed day as the markets awaited the fed announcement at 1400. As expected, the central bank kept the federal funds rate unchanged, kept its outlook at two rate cuts for this year, and noted that uncertainty (key word) around the economic outlook has increased. At that point the markets rallied to a daily gain of over 1%, negating Tuesdays loss and closing at 5,675, the same point level as Mondays close. On Thursday the markets were pretty much muted but then came Friday. The S&P 500 gapped down at the open, turning the week into negative territory and thereby extending the weekly loss streak to five. However, at noon when President Trump stated there would be some flexibility with tariffs, the markets rallied into the close and we broke that streak of four down weeks. From a technical perspective we are now one month removed from 19 February, when the S&P 500 hit a new record closing high of 6,144. That loss of nearly 500 points has seen the S&P 500 briefly slip into correction territory (down 10% from record high) last week. It has also seen Tesla marking its first nine-week losing streak ever. On a positive note we have seen the Bollinger Band (BB) width start to narrow with the BB index decreasing from a high of 136 on 13 March to 100 this Friday. As such, we seem to be building into a consolidation range, and hopefully we can remain above the 5,505 level, 13 Marchs low. For next week well see durable goods, GDP and core PCE on Wednesday through Friday. But 2 April brings us the tariff reciprocal deadline, where all countries that have tariffs on U.S. goods will be charged. That said, the markets may be muted until then. As such, we recommend no changes to our current TSP TIPS investment mix and will probably remain that way through the end of March. That scenario leaves us with one remaining investment mix available in March, and a good opportunity to consider a move to Mutual Fund Window (MFW) TIPS as that second March investment mix. MFW TIPS focuses on the ProFunds Bitcoin (BTCFX) and Ultra NASDAQ 100 (UOPIX) funds, and we are currently 100% in cash after selling BTCFX and UOPIX on 10 and 24 February respectively. In closing, we hope everyone is enjoying our first Spring weekend!!