TSP Market Summary: Week of May 10, 2025

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • Markets showed reduced volatility with first sub-1% weekly move since March 21
  • I fund hit record high and leads TSP performance rankings, followed by C and S funds
  • Upcoming China trade talks and inflation data could impact markets next week

The S&P 500 was slightly down on the week closing Friday at 5,659. On both Monday and Tuesday the S&P 500 gapped down at the open, which accounted for the majority of both days losses. Wednesday was a volatile day as all eyes were on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which again was no change. That said, the markets did rally scoring their first up day of the week. That rally continued into Thursday after President Trump announced a trade deal framework between the U.S. and United Kingdom. Friday was a wait and see kind of flat day as investors awaited trade talks between U.S. and China representatives this weekend. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 remains above its 20 and 50 day Moving Averages (MAs), and we have seen the Bollinger Band Index, which measures volatility, decrease. This week also saw no S&P 500 daily moves of greater than 1%, and the first weekly move of less than 1% since the week ending 21 March. For next week well probably see a reaction to the weekend U.S. and China trade talks on Monday, followed by the inflation numbers on Tuesday and Thursday. For TSP TIPS our current investment mix remains good with the I fund at the top of the Performance Ranking leaderboard, followed by the C and S funds. The highlight of the week goes to the I fund as it made a new record high on Monday. As such we recommend no changes this week.