In a holiday shortened week the S&P 500 was up for both the week and month as it closed out May at 5,911.69. However, the week started with a lot of European Union (EU) tariff news over the long weekend as Trump initially called for a 50% tariff on EU goods, only to then agree to delay those tariffs until 9 July following a call from the EU Commission President. Powered by this news, the S&P 500 gapped up at Tuesdays open and finished the day with a gain of greater than 2%. On Wednesday the Fed released May meeting minutes noting that a cautious monetary policy approach is appropriate during periods of economic uncertainty, while the 30-year Treasury yield briefly reached the 5% level. Although the S&P 500 was down, the big news was the Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report after the close, which showed better-than-expected earnings/revenues and data center business recording year-over-year growth over 73%. As such the S&P 500 gapped up at Thursdays open, but then fell off as tariff legality news put pressure on the markets. Before Fridays open the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased just 0.1% for the month, in line with expectations, while the annual rate came in at 2.5%, the softest increase since March 2021. That positive news lasted about three hours, but news that China violated its preliminary trade agreement led to a sell off with the S&P 500 falling below Tuesdays opening number. And then positive news of a US/UK trade agreement rallied the S&P 500 back to where it closed on Thursday. From a technical perspective the S&P 500 had its best month since November 2023 with the majority of those gains coming the first trading day of this week and Monday, 12 May, with both following weekend UK and China trade news respectively. And from 12 May weve also been in a S&P 500 range channel, but closer to the 5,968 resistance level than the 5,767 support level. Which brings us to the next three weeks with the payrolls and unemployment reports on Friday, inflation numbers the following week, and then the Fed Interest Rate decision the third week on Wednesday 18 June. When you combine the current three-week consolidation range channel period with the key events over the next three weeks, we could then break out with a gain of 4% and be knocking at the door of a new S&P 500 record. For TSP TIPS we did put out a second May investment mix on Thursday to slightly rebalance the Moderate and Conservative models. With regard to the Performance Ranking (PR) leaderboard, the I fund made a new record high on Monday and stands at the top with a PR of 8.6%, more than double the C fund PR of 3.8%, which is more than double the S fund PR of 1.5%. As such, we will continue to monitor market conditions and will make reallocations when warranted.
In a holiday shortened week the S&P 500 was up for both the week and month as it closed out May at 5,911.69. However, the week started with a lot of European Union (EU) tariff news over the long weekend as Trump initially called for a 50% tariff on EU goods, only to then agree to delay those tariffs until 9 July following a call from the EU Commission President. Powered by this news, the S&P 500 gapped up at Tuesdays open and finished the day with a gain of greater than 2%. On Wednesday the Fed released May meeting minutes noting that a cautious monetary policy approach is appropriate during periods of economic uncertainty, while the 30-year Treasury yield briefly reached the 5% level. Although the S&P 500 was down, the big news was the Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report after the close, which showed better-than-expected earnings/revenues and data center business recording year-over-year growth over 73%. As such the S&P 500 gapped up at Thursdays open, but then fell off as tariff legality news put pressure on the markets. Before Fridays open the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased just 0.1% for the month, in line with expectations, while the annual rate came in at 2.5%, the softest increase since March 2021. That positive news lasted about three hours, but news that China violated its preliminary trade agreement led to a sell off with the S&P 500 falling below Tuesdays opening number. And then positive news of a US/UK trade agreement rallied the S&P 500 back to where it closed on Thursday. From a technical perspective the S&P 500 had its best month since November 2023 with the majority of those gains coming the first trading day of this week and Monday, 12 May, with both following weekend UK and China trade news respectively. And from 12 May weve also been in a S&P 500 range channel, but closer to the 5,968 resistance level than the 5,767 support level. Which brings us to the next three weeks with the payrolls and unemployment reports on Friday, inflation numbers the following week, and then the Fed Interest Rate decision the third week on Wednesday 18 June. When you combine the current three-week consolidation range channel period with the key events over the next three weeks, we could then break out with a gain of 4% and be knocking at the door of a new S&P 500 record. For TSP TIPS we did put out a second May investment mix on Thursday to slightly rebalance the Moderate and Conservative models. With regard to the Performance Ranking (PR) leaderboard, the I fund made a new record high on Monday and stands at the top with a PR of 8.6%, more than double the C fund PR of 3.8%, which is more than double the S fund PR of 1.5%. As such, we will continue to monitor market conditions and will make reallocations when warranted.