The S&P 500 scored back-to-back winning weeks as it closed a holiday shortened record setting week at a new all-time high of 6,279. Monday marked the end of a turbulent first half of the year which saw the S&P 500 rising to a new high in February on hopes for business-friendly policies. However, stocks tumbled on tariff news and by 8 April the S&P 500 was down nearly 18%. But not so fast as the S&P 500 then began a stunning comeback of more than 20% as stiff tariff rates were walked back. As an example, Mondays bullish moves came after Canada walked back its digital services tax to facilitate trade negotiations with the U.S., and by the closing bell the S&P 500 had its first record high of the week. Tuesday was a mixed session as the S&P 500 fell slightly with the Dow surging 400 points. On Wednesday news that the U.S. had struck a trade deal with Vietnam buoyed the S&P 500 to its second record high for the week. Coming a day early due to the 4 July holiday, Thursdays Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by 147,000 in June, above the 110,000 forecast, and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, below the 4.3% forecast. This better-than-expected report resulted in the S&P 500 gapping up at the open and closing after lunch at a third record high in a holiday shortened trading day/week. From a technical perspective we have now set new record highs in four of the last five trading sessions. But now that were at the midpoint of 2025, what should we expect for the next six months? As mentioned above, after Aprils low we saw the S&P 500 bounce back and have positive returns in both May and June. That said, since 1988 there have been 16 instances of May and June gains, and 15 times the S&P 500 was higher by the end of the year. Thats a win rate of 93.8% with Average and Median gains of 8.8% and 8.7% respectively. On Monday, 30 June the S&P 500 closed at 6,204.95. An 8.75% gain over the next six months would put it at 6,747.88 at Year End. Just something to think about!! Closer to home, next week we get the Fed minutes and the 90-day tariff reprieve expiring on Wednesday. For TSP TIPS we are 100% invested in all three models, and both the I and C funds made new record highs in five of the last six trading sessions. FYI, the S fund is about 3.5 points shy of its record high of 97.9625 set on 4 December 2024. From a Performance Ranking (PR) perspective, the gap between all funds has narrowed significantly, which may generate a reallocation in the next few weeks. However, at this point our current investment mixes remain good across the board. Lastly, please mark your calendars for a Mid-Year Review zoom meeting at 1700 ET on Wednesday, 16 July.
The S&P 500 scored back-to-back winning weeks as it closed a holiday shortened record setting week at a new all-time high of 6,279. Monday marked the end of a turbulent first half of the year which saw the S&P 500 rising to a new high in February on hopes for business-friendly policies. However, stocks tumbled on tariff news and by 8 April the S&P 500 was down nearly 18%. But not so fast as the S&P 500 then began a stunning comeback of more than 20% as stiff tariff rates were walked back. As an example, Mondays bullish moves came after Canada walked back its digital services tax to facilitate trade negotiations with the U.S., and by the closing bell the S&P 500 had its first record high of the week. Tuesday was a mixed session as the S&P 500 fell slightly with the Dow surging 400 points. On Wednesday news that the U.S. had struck a trade deal with Vietnam buoyed the S&P 500 to its second record high for the week. Coming a day early due to the 4 July holiday, Thursdays Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by 147,000 in June, above the 110,000 forecast, and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, below the 4.3% forecast. This better-than-expected report resulted in the S&P 500 gapping up at the open and closing after lunch at a third record high in a holiday shortened trading day/week. From a technical perspective we have now set new record highs in four of the last five trading sessions. But now that were at the midpoint of 2025, what should we expect for the next six months? As mentioned above, after Aprils low we saw the S&P 500 bounce back and have positive returns in both May and June. That said, since 1988 there have been 16 instances of May and June gains, and 15 times the S&P 500 was higher by the end of the year. Thats a win rate of 93.8% with Average and Median gains of 8.8% and 8.7% respectively. On Monday, 30 June the S&P 500 closed at 6,204.95. An 8.75% gain over the next six months would put it at 6,747.88 at Year End. Just something to think about!! Closer to home, next week we get the Fed minutes and the 90-day tariff reprieve expiring on Wednesday. For TSP TIPS we are 100% invested in all three models, and both the I and C funds made new record highs in five of the last six trading sessions. FYI, the S fund is about 3.5 points shy of its record high of 97.9625 set on 4 December 2024. From a Performance Ranking (PR) perspective, the gap between all funds has narrowed significantly, which may generate a reallocation in the next few weeks. However, at this point our current investment mixes remain good across the board. Lastly, please mark your calendars for a Mid-Year Review zoom meeting at 1700 ET on Wednesday, 16 July.