TSP Market Summary: Week of August 23, 2025

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • Fed Chair Powell signals potential rate cuts in September, driving strong market recovery
  • All TSP stock funds (C/S/I) earn perfect scores with International fund leading performance
  • Nvidia earnings Wednesday and inflation data Friday will test market momentum next week

The S&P 500 made it three up weeks in a row as it closed Friday at 6,446. Going back to the week ending 15 August, the S&P 500 closed down Tuesday through Thursday. However, it broke that string of three consecutive up days on Friday. This carried over into Monday when the S&P 500 started a new down streak by falling less than one point. That extended into Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday as Mega Cap losses brought that S&P 500 loss streak to five days. The last time that happened was on Thursday 2 January 2025, which was driven by Fed rate cut uncertainty. That streak was broken on Friday 3 January 2025 when the S&P 500 had a daily gain of 1.26%. Similar to January, this August five-day losing streak was broken this Friday when the S&P 500 had a daily gain of 1.52% powered by Fed Chair Powell signaling that the central bank could begin easing monetary policy at its 17 September meeting. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 closed Friday just three points shy of a new record high, and the rally also broadened into the Small Cap Sectors. Next week the spotlight will be on Navidas (NVDA) earnings report after Wednesdays close, followed by the monthly Core PCE inflation report on Friday morning. For TSP TIPS all three individual funds (C/S/I) have Composite Scores of 100, and with the International fund making a new all-time high on Friday, it remains at the top of the Performance Ranking leaderboard. As such we recommend no changes to our current investment mixes.