The S&P 500 lost six points over the week, breaking a two week winning streak and closing Friday at 6,460. With all eyes focused on Nvidia earnings report after Wednesdays close, Monday started out on a bearish note as the S&P 500 closed at the session low, down about 0.4%. However, on Tuesday the S&P 500 clawed back all of those losses and finished within one point of last Fridays close. Wednesday was Nvidia anticipation day and the S&P 500 steadily climbed to a new record closing high. Minutes later, Nvidia reported strong 56% revenue growth for the prior quarter, but investors were looking for more as it fell 3% on Thursday. However, Thursdays Gross Domestic Production (GDP) number showed the US economy growing at an annual rate of 3.3% in Q2 2025, a sharp rebound from the 0.5% contraction in Q1. As such the S&P 500 marched higher and closed above 6,500 for the first time, setting another new record high. Friday was all about the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which rose in line with expectations. Headline PCE rose 0.2% month over month in July and 2.6% year over year, while Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, climbed increased 0.3% month on month and 2.9% year on year. That said, the S&P 500 sold off at the open, but steadied somewhat when the UMICH consumer sentiment index showed a reading of 58.2, about in line with the consensus but 5.7% below the July level and off 14.3% from a year ago. When you combine that with people wanting to take some money off the table going into a long weekend, the S&P 500 lost 0.63% and closed Friday at 6,460. From a technical perspective August marked the fourth straight months of gains, and the Bollinger Band Index (BBI), which measures market volatility, remains at a low, tame reading with the BB channel width actually contracting. Looking ahead, September has been the biggest losing month for the S&P 500 (-0.7%) since 1950. But lets weigh that against the 20 new record closes for the S&P 500 this year, and Let the trend be our friend. Next week the markets are closed on Monday, but the big news will come on Friday with the Payrolls and Unemployment reports, which should influence the Fed rate decision on 17 September. For TSP TIPS the C and S funds made new all-time highs on Wednesday and Thursday, while the F fund made new 52-week high. All three equity funds (C/S/I) have Composite Scores of 100, but the S fund has now propelled itself to the top of the Performance Ranking (PR) Leaderboard. With the I fund not hitting a new high this week, the C fund has bounded into the PR runner up position. As such we are recommending the following new investment mixes. <br>Lastly, we are solidifying our administrative processes and plan on launching Schwab TIPS, which utilizes an aggressive growth strategy, in 2026. Outside the boundaries of the TSP, it is optimized for IRA and 401K self-directed retirement accounts. Stocks and Leveraged ETFs include RKLB, RDDT, HOOD, APPX, SOFI and PTIR. If youd like more information and access to the free pre-release version contact us at roy@weisertinvestments.com.
The S&P 500 lost six points over the week, breaking a two week winning streak and closing Friday at 6,460. With all eyes focused on Nvidia earnings report after Wednesdays close, Monday started out on a bearish note as the S&P 500 closed at the session low, down about 0.4%. However, on Tuesday the S&P 500 clawed back all of those losses and finished within one point of last Fridays close. Wednesday was Nvidia anticipation day and the S&P 500 steadily climbed to a new record closing high. Minutes later, Nvidia reported strong 56% revenue growth for the prior quarter, but investors were looking for more as it fell 3% on Thursday. However, Thursdays Gross Domestic Production (GDP) number showed the US economy growing at an annual rate of 3.3% in Q2 2025, a sharp rebound from the 0.5% contraction in Q1. As such the S&P 500 marched higher and closed above 6,500 for the first time, setting another new record high. Friday was all about the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which rose in line with expectations. Headline PCE rose 0.2% month over month in July and 2.6% year over year, while Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, climbed increased 0.3% month on month and 2.9% year on year. That said, the S&P 500 sold off at the open, but steadied somewhat when the UMICH consumer sentiment index showed a reading of 58.2, about in line with the consensus but 5.7% below the July level and off 14.3% from a year ago. When you combine that with people wanting to take some money off the table going into a long weekend, the S&P 500 lost 0.63% and closed Friday at 6,460. From a technical perspective August marked the fourth straight months of gains, and the Bollinger Band Index (BBI), which measures market volatility, remains at a low, tame reading with the BB channel width actually contracting. Looking ahead, September has been the biggest losing month for the S&P 500 (-0.7%) since 1950. But lets weigh that against the 20 new record closes for the S&P 500 this year, and Let the trend be our friend. Next week the markets are closed on Monday, but the big news will come on Friday with the Payrolls and Unemployment reports, which should influence the Fed rate decision on 17 September. For TSP TIPS the C and S funds made new all-time highs on Wednesday and Thursday, while the F fund made new 52-week high. All three equity funds (C/S/I) have Composite Scores of 100, but the S fund has now propelled itself to the top of the Performance Ranking (PR) Leaderboard. With the I fund not hitting a new high this week, the C fund has bounded into the PR runner up position. As such we are recommending the following new investment mixes. <br>Lastly, we are solidifying our administrative processes and plan on launching Schwab TIPS, which utilizes an aggressive growth strategy, in 2026. Outside the boundaries of the TSP, it is optimized for IRA and 401K self-directed retirement accounts. Stocks and Leveraged ETFs include RKLB, RDDT, HOOD, APPX, SOFI and PTIR. If youd like more information and access to the free pre-release version contact us at roy@weisertinvestments.com.