The S&P 500 finished down for the week, closing Friday at 6,552 and back to month ago levels. For the second consecutive week the government shutdown was the underlying theme influencing market behavior. As such, on Monday gold popped above $4,000 per ounce, and the S&P 500 scored its fourth consecutive day of new record highs when OpenAI agreed to purchase tens of billions of dollars of chips from AMD over multiple years. On Tuesday the S&P 500 broke a seven-day win streak when pressured by a drop in Oracle that called to question the sustainability of the artificial intelligence trade. On Wednesday the S&P 500 notched its eighth winning day of the last nine and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed more than 1% to end above the 23,000 mark for the first time ever. With the shutdown stalemate continuing into Thursday, investors are struggling to find catalysts due to a lack of economic data and the S&P 500 fell slightly but remained above the 6,700 level. Then came Friday, and all was good as the markets opened strong with the S&P 500 just two points shy of breaking above Thursdays all-time intraday high of 6,764. And then came 1100 and the threat of higher tariffs on China after they announced trade restrictions on rare earth metals. Stocks declined sharply with the S&P 500 down 2.71%, its worst daily loss since 10 April, before closing at 6,552. So whats next from a technical perspective? On 10 April the S&P 500 lost -3.46% and it closed at 5,268. So lets look at this from a glass half full perspective and see what we can learn. Between 10 April and Thursdays close of 6,735, in six months the S&P 500 gained 1,467 points and 27.8%. We have approximately three months left in 2025. If the S&P 500 gained half of that percentage or 14.9%, that would put the S&P 500 around the 7,400 to 7,500 range on 31 December. For next week we start earnings season with several major banks slated to post their third-quarter results, and then on 29 October we have the next Fed interest rate decision. For TSP TIPS the C fund mirrored the S&P 500 and set new record highs on Monday and Wednesday. Not to be outdone, the S and I funds also set new record highs on Monday. While the glass may be half full, no one can predict the future and we are recommending a slight equity allocation decrease in three models. TSP NOTICE: Some financial markets will be closed on Monday, October 13, in observance of Columbus Day. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (October 13) will be processed Tuesday night (October 14) at Tuesday's closing share prices. TSP TIPS QUARTERLY REVIEW ZOOM MEETING: Wednesday, 15 October, 1700 ET. Link: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/87276105683?pwd=SASfuyLx0xXzaxuaxLPTbgiXJ65JuG.1 Meeting ID: 872 7610 5683 Passcode: 555883 One tap mobile: +13052241968,,87276105683#,,,,*555883# US
The S&P 500 finished down for the week, closing Friday at 6,552 and back to month ago levels. For the second consecutive week the government shutdown was the underlying theme influencing market behavior. As such, on Monday gold popped above $4,000 per ounce, and the S&P 500 scored its fourth consecutive day of new record highs when OpenAI agreed to purchase tens of billions of dollars of chips from AMD over multiple years. On Tuesday the S&P 500 broke a seven-day win streak when pressured by a drop in Oracle that called to question the sustainability of the artificial intelligence trade. On Wednesday the S&P 500 notched its eighth winning day of the last nine and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed more than 1% to end above the 23,000 mark for the first time ever. With the shutdown stalemate continuing into Thursday, investors are struggling to find catalysts due to a lack of economic data and the S&P 500 fell slightly but remained above the 6,700 level. Then came Friday, and all was good as the markets opened strong with the S&P 500 just two points shy of breaking above Thursdays all-time intraday high of 6,764. And then came 1100 and the threat of higher tariffs on China after they announced trade restrictions on rare earth metals. Stocks declined sharply with the S&P 500 down 2.71%, its worst daily loss since 10 April, before closing at 6,552. So whats next from a technical perspective? On 10 April the S&P 500 lost -3.46% and it closed at 5,268. So lets look at this from a glass half full perspective and see what we can learn. Between 10 April and Thursdays close of 6,735, in six months the S&P 500 gained 1,467 points and 27.8%. We have approximately three months left in 2025. If the S&P 500 gained half of that percentage or 14.9%, that would put the S&P 500 around the 7,400 to 7,500 range on 31 December. For next week we start earnings season with several major banks slated to post their third-quarter results, and then on 29 October we have the next Fed interest rate decision. For TSP TIPS the C fund mirrored the S&P 500 and set new record highs on Monday and Wednesday. Not to be outdone, the S and I funds also set new record highs on Monday. While the glass may be half full, no one can predict the future and we are recommending a slight equity allocation decrease in three models. TSP NOTICE: Some financial markets will be closed on Monday, October 13, in observance of Columbus Day. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (October 13) will be processed Tuesday night (October 14) at Tuesday's closing share prices. TSP TIPS QUARTERLY REVIEW ZOOM MEETING: Wednesday, 15 October, 1700 ET. Link: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/87276105683?pwd=SASfuyLx0xXzaxuaxLPTbgiXJ65JuG.1 Meeting ID: 872 7610 5683 Passcode: 555883 One tap mobile: +13052241968,,87276105683#,,,,*555883# US