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TSP Market Summary: Week of February 14, 2026

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • S&P 500 had worst week of 2026, falling below 50-day average despite strong jobs report
  • I fund (international) and F fund (bonds) both hit multiple record highs this week
  • Markets approaching year-to-date lows with concerning technical breakdown signals

The S&P 500 notched its worst weekly loss of 2026 as it closed down at 6,836. On Monday tech stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 gaining another 0.5% and building on the previous Fridays nearly 2% comeback. In Tuesdays session the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% as worries over artificial intelligences impact on the financial sector weighed on the index. However, the 30-stock Dow eked out a gain of 0.1%, notching another all-time high and closing record. Before Wednesdays open the January nonfarm payrolls report showed sharp jobs growth of 130,000 last month, far above what economists were expecting, and much higher than the downwardly revised December gain. The unemployment rate also ticked lower to 4.3% from 4.4%. Stocks rallied at the open with the S&P 500 hitting an intraweek high of 6,993, just seven points shy of that 7,000 resistance level. However, that was short-lived as the markets sold off with the S&P 500 closing within one point of Tuesdays close. Similar to the previous Thursday when the S&P 500 lost over 1%, major U.S. averages dropped on this Thursday as fears around artificial intelligence disruption spread across the markets. At the closing bell the S&P 500 dropped nearly 1.6%, the NASDAQ 100 lost just over 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1.3%. However, unlike the previous Friday (as noted above), this Friday the S&P 500 could only muster a small gain of four points as a key consumer inflation report that came in slightly lighter than expected failed to spark a substantial rally. From a technical perspective, and weve mentioned this before, the S&P 500 has been rangebound since the beginning of December. The S&P 500 is now below its 50 day Moving Average (MA), and weve only had two positive weeks in 2026. Were also getting close to breaking below our Year to Date low of 6,780. And it was just about this time in 2025 when the S&P 500 dropped 1,300 points in the span of eight weeks. For next week the markets are closed on Monday and then well get some GDP data on Friday. For TSP TIPS that I fund just continues to outperform as it hit three new record highs on Monday through Wednesday (make that four in a row if you count Friday, 6 February). And weve also seen an upside breakout in the F fund as it hit four new record highs the week, with the lone exception being Wednesday. As such we recommend the following new investment mixes for the moderate and conservative models.

Recommended Allocation (Moderate Profile)

This is our historical recommendation from this date. For current recommendations, subscribe.

G FundF FundC FundS FundI Fund
5% 10% 0% 15% 70%
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