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TSP Market Summary: Week of March 03, 2026

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP

Key Takeaways

  • U.S.-Iran war escalated with regional strikes and Strait of Hormuz closure affecting markets
  • Markets showed resilience Monday but sold off sharply Tuesday; recommending risk-off posture
  • Conflict expected to last through April, creating ongoing uncertainty for TSP fund performance

As we all know, the U.S. went to war with Iran last weekend. Also, last weekend TSP TIPS stated that For next week the focus will be on Mideast tensions and its effects on the markets. While well probably see a decrease at Mondays open, hopefully the overall markets will be buoyed by the Metals and Energy sectors. That came to pass on Monday as the S&P 500 gapped down at the open to 6,800, and from there slowly clawed back that gap loss to close at 6,881 for a daily gain of 0.04%. However, the environment changed overnight as fears of the war escalating became a reality with the Straits of Hormuz closure and Iranian strikes into neighboring countries. It also became clear that the length of this war would not come by weeks end, rather maybe a month, i.e. beginning of April. As such all markets, including gold and silver, sold off sharply at Tuesdays open. It did turn around to the upside in the afternoon, but its frustrating as the markets seem to move up like an escalator but down like an elevator. As such, we recommend moving to a risk off posture by increasing our cash holdings across all three models as follows. As always, well continue to monitor market conditions and make further recommendations when warranted.

Recommended Allocation (Moderate Profile)

This is our historical recommendation from this date. For current recommendations, subscribe.

G FundF FundC FundS FundI Fund
50% 0% 20% 0% 30%
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