In a holiday shortened week the S&P had its best gain since 29 November 2025, breaking a string of five consecutive down weeks and closing Thursday at 6,582. While the Middle Eastern war took the headlines, Monday started off tough as the S&P 500 posted its third losing session in a row, closing at a 2026 low of 6,343. That all changed on Tuesday as the blue-chip Dow added about 2.5%, the S&P 500 advanced 2.9%, while the NASDAQ 100 jumped 3.4%, the best daily performance since May for all three. These moves came after an unconfirmed report that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was open to ending the war with guarantees and Trump told aides he was willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed for now. On Wednesday this banter continued but the markets had a second positive day in anticipation of Trumps evening speech. On Thursday the S&P 500 gapped down at the open with both the Dow and S&P 500 down about 1.4%, while the NASDAQ 100 was down around 2.2%. However, the three major indexes ripped higher from their steep losses to briefly turn positive after Iranian state media said that the Middle Eastern country is working with Oman on a protocol to monitor ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The markets were closed for Good Friday, but the March payrolls and employment numbers showed that 78,000 jobs were added, and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, driven by a rebound from Februarys strike and weatherrelated losses. From a technical perspective we broke that five-week losing streak, but one data point does not constitute a trend. And now (Saturday noon) theres a lot of war uncertainty with an F-15 WSO missing and the Iranian deadline within 48 hours, which happens to be coincident with Mondays market open. That said, the second half of next week brings us the FOMC minutes, GDP and numerous inflation numbers. For TSP TIPS all three equity funds hit 2026 lows on Monday, but with the rest of the week surge, the Performance Ranking (PR) of the I returned to positive territory on Tuesday while the S fund crossed that threshold on Friday. As noted above, one data point does not constitute a trend, and the Composite Scores are still low. As such we recommend no changes to our current investment mixes and will continue to monitor market conditions.
In a holiday shortened week the S&P had its best gain since 29 November 2025, breaking a string of five consecutive down weeks and closing Thursday at 6,582. While the Middle Eastern war took the headlines, Monday started off tough as the S&P 500 posted its third losing session in a row, closing at a 2026 low of 6,343. That all changed on Tuesday as the blue-chip Dow added about 2.5%, the S&P 500 advanced 2.9%, while the NASDAQ 100 jumped 3.4%, the best daily performance since May for all three. These moves came after an unconfirmed report that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was open to ending the war with guarantees and Trump told aides he was willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed for now. On Wednesday this banter continued but the markets had a second positive day in anticipation of Trumps evening speech. On Thursday the S&P 500 gapped down at the open with both the Dow and S&P 500 down about 1.4%, while the NASDAQ 100 was down around 2.2%. However, the three major indexes ripped higher from their steep losses to briefly turn positive after Iranian state media said that the Middle Eastern country is working with Oman on a protocol to monitor ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The markets were closed for Good Friday, but the March payrolls and employment numbers showed that 78,000 jobs were added, and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, driven by a rebound from Februarys strike and weatherrelated losses. From a technical perspective we broke that five-week losing streak, but one data point does not constitute a trend. And now (Saturday noon) theres a lot of war uncertainty with an F-15 WSO missing and the Iranian deadline within 48 hours, which happens to be coincident with Mondays market open. That said, the second half of next week brings us the FOMC minutes, GDP and numerous inflation numbers. For TSP TIPS all three equity funds hit 2026 lows on Monday, but with the rest of the week surge, the Performance Ranking (PR) of the I returned to positive territory on Tuesday while the S fund crossed that threshold on Friday. As noted above, one data point does not constitute a trend, and the Composite Scores are still low. As such we recommend no changes to our current investment mixes and will continue to monitor market conditions.