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TSP Market Summary: Week of July 03, 2026

By Roy Weisert, PhD, CFP •

Key Takeaways

  • S&P 500 rose 1.76% to 7,483; Q2 gains were strong, and the Dow hit a record while tech lagged.
  • C, S and I funds all score 100; S fund leads rankings after a record high, so TSP TIPS recommends no changes.
  • June jobs missed forecasts at 57,000; earnings season starts soon and may fuel the next move.

The S&P 500 bounced back from the previous weeks loss, clawing back 1.76% and closing Thursday at 7,483. On Monday stocks rallied as a pause in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend lifted sentiment with the S&P 500 gaining over 1% and the NASDAQ 100 tacking on 2+%. That said, the Dow closed at a fresh record high above the 52,000 level, boosted by a nearly 5% gain in Alphabet during its first trading session as a Dow member. Tuesday marked the end of June, second quarter and mid-year. On the quarter, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 surged 14.9% and 21.4% respectively for their biggest quarterly gains since Q2 2020. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 12.9% marking its strongest quarter since Q4 2022, best first-half performance since 2021, and closing at another record high. On Wednesday major U.S. averages closed lower as investors pared positions in chipmakers. Before Thursdays open the June jobs report showed an increase of 57,000, below the 115,000 jobs expected, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%. Based on those numbers, the Dow scaled to another record high, the S&P 500 remained flat, while the NASDAQ 100 languished as semiconductors struggled once again. And what we have here is a rotation with the Dow taking the record setting lead, while both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100s last record highs were a month ago on 2 June. That said, economic news is light next week and then earning season starts the next week, which hopefully will provide the impetus for another bull run higher. For TSP TIPS we made a slight reallocation last week and all three equity funds (C/S/I) have Composite Scores of 100. That said, the S fund sits at the top of the Performance Ranking leaderboard as it made a new record high on Tuesday. As such we recommend no changes to our current investment mixes. Lastly, we hope everyone enjoys our 250th birthday!!

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